Super Week is Coming: Global Market Outlook Amid Data Intensity and Geopolitical Games

TCA Finance App News—— Next week (April 6–10), the United States will release multiple key data points related to economic growth and inflation. Combined with expectations for the U.S.-Iran agreement, the OPEC+ meeting, and policy moves from central banks around the world, geopolitical developments and major economic indicators will intertwine, making it easy to trigger sharp market volatility. From crude oil inventory to global inflation data to the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, each piece of key information will influence asset pricing. Investors need to closely watch key milestones and respond to potential market variables.

Geopolitical agreement hits a turning point; early-week data rolls out in sync

On Monday (April 6), global capital markets are closed for the holiday, but there are still three major items to watch that day: the White House claims it wants to reach an agreement with Iran before April 6; Saudi Aramco announced official pricing last Sunday; and OPEC and oil-producing countries hold a meeting.

In addition, the U.S. will release the March ISM non-manufacturing PMI and the global March supply chain stress index.

Asia-Pacific reserve data released; U.S. inflation expectations draw attention

On Tuesday (April 7), China will publish foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves, while the U.S. will publish March New York inflation expectations and expectations for gold’s price increase, providing references for the market’s assessment of the precious metals and inflation outlook.

Crude oil inventory data released; central bank decisions and euro-area consumption data unveiled

On Wednesday (April 8), the U.S. will release API and EIA crude oil inventory data; FOMC voting member for 2027 and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will deliver remarks on monetary policy.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will publish the latest interest rate decision; previously, the bank held the rate at 2.25% unchanged in February.

On the same day, the euro area will release February retail sales data.

U.S. growth and inflation data land together; Fed minutes release policy signals

On Thursday (April 9), the U.S. will auction its latest 10-year Treasury notes; the auction yield can be used to observe the market’s stance toward inflation and economic growth;

The U.S. Q4 GDP, PCE, and core PCE price index, delayed for release due to a government shutdown, will be published on the same day, while also monitoring U.S. growth and inflation levels in parallel.

The U.S. will also release initial and continuing claims for unemployment benefits. In the early hours, the Federal Reserve will publish meeting minutes for its monetary policy, explaining why the March policy rate was maintained at 3.5%–3.75%.

Inflation data wrap up across multiple countries; consumer confidence guides market sentiment

On Friday (April 10), China will release March CPI and PPI, followed by publishing social financing (社融) and M2 supply conditions; Germany will release March CPI.

The U.S. will release March CPI and core CPI data, as well as the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and inflation expectations for April.

Risk warning

In addition to core economic data, investors should focus on three major potential risks: first, progress on the U.S.-Iran agreement and changes in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East could raise safe-haven sentiment, benefiting assets such as gold and crude oil; second, if speeches by Federal Reserve officials and the meeting minutes release signals of a policy shift, market interest-rate expectations could be quickly adjusted; third, if Germany and euro-area inflation data come in below expectations, it may suppress the euro’s performance; fourth, if crude oil inventories swing sharply, it could trigger violent short-term fluctuations in international oil prices.

(Editor-in-charge: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)

【Risk warning】According to relevant foreign exchange administration regulations, the buying and selling of foreign exchange shall be conducted at transaction venues designated by the state, such as banks. Anyone who buys and sells foreign exchange on their own, in disguised forms, engages in round-trip speculation, or illegally introduces the buying and selling of foreign exchange in relatively large amounts, will be subject to administrative penalties in accordance with law by the foreign exchange administration authority; if it constitutes a crime, criminal liability will be pursued in accordance with law.

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