Gold Calm Does Not Herald Good News

"The cost of war is not paid during it... but afterward."
Joseph Stiglitz

If you look closely at recent history beyond the noise, you'll discover a truth that is rarely spoken: major economic crises are not born in the moment of war… but develop during it, then explode quietly afterward.
War does not immediately topple regimes; rather, it exhausts them, drains them, and forces them to make decisions that seem “necessary” at the time… but deeply disrupt the core of the financial system. This is exactly how the most dangerous monetary shifts were born, and how the link between gold and the dollar was broken—not as a well-planned choice, but as an inevitable result of a war that exhausted more than it should have.
The ironic—yet truly frightening—fact is that some countries are not dragged into wars… but walk toward them, driven by an economic need that is not loudly voiced. What is presented as a political necessity often, in essence, becomes a burden quietly transferred from the state to the people—not through direct decisions, but via a harsher mechanism: erosion of value… a currency losing its strength without announcement, prices rising without clear justification, and purchasing power gradually fading until people realize too late that what they own no longer suffices as it once did. Here, the disaster is not loud… but slow, psychological, and cumulative—and that is precisely what makes it more dangerous.

Latest News and Its Impact on Price
“What cannot be printed… cannot be controlled easily.”
Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Today, markets are moving in a state of cautious stagnation, narrow ranges dominate gold, silver, US stocks, and even Bitcoin… as if they are not reflecting balance but anticipation. More than a week has passed without a clear direction, not because opportunities are absent, but because the market stands on the brink of a moment that could reprice everything all at once.
The current scene is not read from price movements… but from the accumulation of upcoming events:
First, the Iranian–American negotiations, approaching a critical date set by Donald Trump… either an agreement that eases tensions, or escalation that could open a broader conflict. If the latter scenario materializes, rising oil prices will be the most direct outcome, putting pressure on all financial assets, and even gold may temporarily decline under the weight of liquidity redistribution.

Second, upcoming economic data—inflation, and Q1 GDP—are expected to be negative… If these numbers come as expected, they will give the Federal Reserve a reason to continue a tight monetary policy, possibly reintroduce interest rate hikes, which the market will not tolerate easily and will cause intense pressure across all markets.

Third, the US corporate earnings season, where weak expectations prevail amid rising operational costs… any disappointment in results could push stocks into a downward wave, and investors may be forced to liquidate their gold holdings to cover losses—one of the most repeated paradoxes in markets.

Fourth, inflation expectations indicators, led by the Michigan Index, in an environment where energy prices are rising… this chain—higher oil, higher costs, higher inflation, higher interest rates—exerts direct pressure on gold in the short term, even if this pressure is temporary by nature.

In summary, what we are witnessing is not a weakness in gold, but a phased pressure imposed by intertwined monetary and political factors. However, the core of gold has not changed, nor its function as a store of value… but its upward path may be delayed, no more than that, because gold cannot be controlled at all, but what can be controlled is what it is priced against—the dollar—and all of the above reinforces the dollar’s position as a currency, as reliance on it will increase amid declining yields everywhere.

Long-term Economic Analysis
But the long-term outlook has not changed the US economic reality; the debt crisis remains, perhaps worse. The dollar’s overall weakness persists. Perhaps the war the US waged against Iran to pressure China into buying US Treasury bonds (—as I mentioned in a previous article—has contributed to the dollar’s worst state, but it simply did not change the overall scene. Debts have not disappeared, trust in the dollar has not been restored, the US economy has not rebounded, and we are officially in a recession that could lead to a depression or the largest re-pricing phase in history. The demand for gold remains the same despite all this decline… Therefore, my long-term outlook for gold remains positive despite the negative short-term signals.

Technical Price Analysis
“Nothing of value in economics without statistics.”
Dr. Saleh

1. The volume ) of buy orders ( is very high around 4000–4200; we have only seen such volume at 2500.
2. The price remains within the fourth corrective wave of Elliott, ending around 4200–4100.
3. The fifth wave of Elliott begins at 4100, targeting 6500–7000.
4. The candlestick behavior indicates weak momentum; the strength to break 5000 and target new highs is there, but a retest of 4200–or 4500 at least is necessary.
5. According to price pattern behaviors, the price forms a continuation pattern targeting 5500 as a minimum, provided there is sufficient momentum.
6. Statistically, there is up to a 60% chance to test the 4200 level.

Summary:
I expect a short-term test of 4200–4000, which presents good buying levels to target 5500.
Breaking the 5500 level and aiming for 6000 is very close, provided there is a retest of 4000–4200 to activate buy orders.
If the market rises above 4500 without testing lower levels, I see no higher than 5000, and I believe that rising without testing is an unsafe ascent—prone to slipping at any moment.

Financial Advisor’s Opinion
Dealing with gold is never just about looking at prices; it’s about looking at all markets because gold is a mirror reflecting the state of the economy, the reality of printed money, and the level of trust in it. Your skill, dear investor, is to take the best advice from its price for every investment, regardless of the circumstances.
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