The United States is mired in the quagmire of war, and the midterm elections pose a heavy burden for the Republican Party.

This November, the United States will hold midterm elections. However, as the conflict between the U.S. and Israel against Iran drags on, mounting economic pressure is weighing on the country, and strong anti-war sentiment among the public is intensifying—creating tremendous political pressure for the governing party.

Multiple polls show that Americans are increasingly losing confidence in the Trump administration’s ability to handle conflicts and economic matters. The U.S. is mired in a war quagmire—how could military action against Iran turn into a heavy burden for the Republican Party’s midterm elections?

The military strikes by the U.S. and Israel against Iran are now backfiring on the American economy. The numbers constantly flickering at gas stations have become the most obvious metronome of economic strain in the U.S. As of April 4, the average U.S. gasoline price, local time, has risen to $4.10 per gallon, up about 37% since February 28.

What’s being hit isn’t only the price of oil. Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, nearly half of the world’s fertilizer trade has been disrupted. The U.S. relies on imported fertilizer for about 35% of its supply, including phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers coming from the Middle East. As the planting season approaches, fertilizer prices at home are rising, worsening the situation for local farmers already shaken by the Trump administration’s tariff policies and a slump in prices for agricultural products.

U.S. Business News Network reporter: A large portion of the fertilizer used by American farmers has to be transported through the Strait of Hormuz—especially fertilizers that contain urea and nitrogen. And these fertilizers are crucial for corn cultivation. Last week, a corn farmer told me that when he bought fertilizer in January, it was about $350 per ton. Now it has risen to roughly $650 per ton. This kind of supply disruption is really not coming at a good time for farmers. They are preparing for spring plowing. How much fertilizer they can afford directly determines how much land they can plant, and how much grain they can harvest in the fall.

Once agricultural output declines, it will directly push up food prices, thereby adding to the U.S. inflation pressure. Toni Pelley, Global Business Director of Supply Chain Resilience at the British Standards Association, believes that in the next 3 to 6 months, it is very likely that we will see prices for food and everyday goods rise in the U.S.

This timeline is especially sensitive for the U.S. It is about half a year later that the country will hold midterm elections. Spiking oil prices and high prices for food and household essentials could all become targets for both parties to attack each other. And what they point to is a hot phrase that has been hard to avoid in U.S. elections in recent years—“affordability.”

“Affordability” isn’t an academic term in economics; it’s more of a psychological description, directly asking voters’ most pressing concern: “Can we still afford necessities of life?” During the 2024 election, the Republican Party’s campaign platform explicitly stated, “Make America affordable again.” Now that promise has been completely shattered by the war in Iran.

Diao Daming, professor at the School of International Relations, Renmin University of China: Now, the impact of the war in Iran is not only on oil prices, not only on ordinary U.S. public consumption. It may also lead to fluctuations in some financial markets—for example, retirement pensions and social welfare that ordinary Americans are involved with could also be affected to some extent. You could say this impact may be structural or systemic. It will intensify public attention to and dissatisfaction with affordability, and then shift blame toward the Republicans currently in power.

Two years ago, the Republican promise to lower prices helped them win the election. Now, the tug-of-war between the two parties in the U.S. is shifting. In recent local elections, Democrats have made cost of living—the core issue—the focus of their pitch, and they have repeatedly won. At the end of March this year, a Democratic candidate won the seat in Florida’s 87th congressional district, the home of U.S. President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort. U.S. media commentary says this symbolizes a win for Democrats in Trump’s “political backyard.”

Jim Messina, former adviser to former U.S. President Barack Obama: Now, the district that Trump calls home is represented by a Democrat. This is the first time it has happened in people’s memory. Since Trump took office, Democrats have won more than 100 local elections across the country, and their vote performance has generally been about 10.4% higher than it was during the Harris era. In American political terms, this is basically an “overwhelming victory.” We’re starting to win some seats that we haven’t won in an entire generation. I don’t think it’s because we are just that good. I think it’s mainly thanks to Trump’s dismal approval ratings.

The latest polling shows that Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 36%, the lowest level since he returned to the White House; the proportion of respondents who approve of U.S. strikes against Iran has risen to 61%; and only 25% of respondents approve of how Trump is handling the cost-of-living issue.

When approval ratings hit a near-freezing point, it reflects the bleak outlook for Republicans in the midterm elections. Based on historical patterns, the governing party typically suffers losses in midterm elections—since the 1930s, the governing party has on average lost 28 House seats and 4 Senate seats after midterm elections. This November, all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives will be up for election, and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be up for election. Analysis suggests that the Republican Party is unlikely to be able to maintain control of the House.

Diao Daming, professor at the School of International Relations, Renmin University of China: In the House of Representatives, although the Republicans in the 119th Congress currently hold a majority, the advantage of that majority is extremely narrow. Midterm elections themselves are not very favorable for the party that the president belongs to. Given how small the Republicans’ advantage is in the House right now, and adding the public’s concerns about affordability and dissatisfaction with Republican governance, there is a relatively sizable possibility that Democrats could pull off a turnaround in the midterm elections—especially in parts of the House.

As the war in Iran drags on and economic pressure in the U.S. intensifies, there are now clear divisions within the Republican Party. In March, the director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center, Joe Kent, resigned, saying he “could not support the U.S. military action against Iran while ignoring his conscience.” Also, according to U.S. media reports, Vice President Vance believes that “the U.S. was tricked into joining the war by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.”

Reports recently pointed out that the U.S. Department of Defense will expand the size of its A-10 attack aircraft fleet deployed in the Middle East by one half. These aircraft mainly support ground forces in their advance and combat operations. In response to the possibility of U.S. ground combat, more Republicans have voiced opposition.

Nancy Mace, a Republican member of the U.S. House of Representatives: Will there be involvement by ground forces? I think that would come with a huge price. This is a midterm election year. Once any American soldier from us sets foot on the ground, public perception will change. That change happens in an instant. I strongly oppose the involvement of ground forces.

Internal disputes within the Republican Party reflect a signal—voters are becoming anxious and uneasy about the current decisions made by the U.S. government. The “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) camp, once seen as Trump’s most solid political base, is starting to loosen.

Liu Weidong, a researcher at the Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: There are more and more Republican lawmakers who, for their own interests, are no longer following Trump the way they did last year. Sometimes, even for the interests of voters in their own districts, they dare to stand on the opposite side of the Republican Party to oppose Trump. Especially among the Republican core voters—the MAGA group—there is an increasing amount of division. Their dissatisfaction with Trump on a range of issues is growing, including the handling of the Epstein case and Trump’s continued use of force abroad. This means that the most steadfast voter group has become less like a “single block” than before.

While there are still several months until the midterm elections in November, the clock is already moving in a direction that is unfavorable to the Republicans. Economic pressure on the ground hurts domestic livelihoods, the deeper entanglement in the war drives a wedge within the party, and it is obviously not an easy road for the Republicans to hold their ground in the midterm elections. And that is precisely the political cost they can hardly avoid after choosing the option of “war.”

Source: China National Radio