Next week's macro outlook: The sixth week of the war, Trump's script is about to collapse, CPI will surge, and gold prices may stage a big show

ME News message. On April 4 (UTC+8), the U.S. released its nonfarm payroll report on Friday, showing 178k new jobs created in the country—well above expectations. Meanwhile, the February data was revised from the initial estimate of a decline of 92k to a decline of 133k. Against the backdrop of reduced odds of a 2026 rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the report provided short-term support for the U.S. dollar. The Iran war has entered its sixth week, and the “quick and decisive” Trump playbook is starting to fall apart. The market’s more critical test is also on the way: the first CPI after the outbreak of hostilities is about to be released. Inflation could run hot, and some people have warned, “This is not the time to trade.” Below are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times are Beijing time): Monday 22:00, the U.S. March ISM non-manufacturing PMI; Tuesday 23:00, the U.S. March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations; Wednesday 00:35, speeches by 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee on monetary policy; Thursday 02:00, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; Thursday 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims, U.S. February core PCE price index (year over year), U.S. February personal spending (month over month), the final estimate of the U.S. fourth-quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate, the final estimate of U.S. fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures (quarter over quarter), the final estimate of U.S. fourth-quarter core PCE price index (annualized quarter over quarter), and U.S. February core PCE price index (month over month); Friday 20:30, the U.S. March unadjusted CPI (year over year)/core CPI (year over year) and the U.S. March seasonally adjusted CPI (month over month)/core CPI (month over month). Friday 22:00, the initial value of the U.S. April one-year inflation rate expectations, the initial value of the U.S. April University of Michigan consumer confidence index, and the U.S. February factory orders (month over month) (Source: PANews)