Ripple (XRP) — A Crossroads of Regulatory Breakthroughs and Expectations

XRP is currently trading at about $1.29 to $1.33, with a market capitalization of about $70 billion. Compared with its historical high of $3.65 on July 3, 2025, it is down by about 64%. It has been in a downtrend for six consecutive months. After the SEC lawsuit case was basically settled, regulatory clarity provided policy support for XRP, but the price has not effectively rebounded.

On the fundamentals, Ripple has recently made a major breakthrough—by successfully acquiring BC Payments Australia to obtain an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL). This marks an important step forward in its compliance strategy in the Asia-Pacific region, enabling it to provide regulated blockchain cross-border payment solutions for institutional clients. Fiona Murray, Managing Director for the Asia-Pacific region, said that there is strong demand in the market for “regulated crypto infrastructure.”

On the institutional front, Goldman Sachs has become the largest publicly disclosed holder of spot XRP ETFs. From the launch in November 2025 to March 2026, the XRP ETF recorded cumulative net inflows of $1.4 billion, showing that institutional investors are not afraid of short-term price volatility and are continuing with long-term allocations. However, despite a steady stream of positive news, XRP is still down by about 30% since the start of this year, highlighting a market fatigue where “good news does not lead to price increases.”

Standard Chartered recently lowered its XRP year-end target price to $2.80. Analysts believe that the price of XRP will depend on two core variables: first, whether the speed and cost advantages of cross-border payments can be translated into real adoption; and second, whether regulatory clarity enables the shift from testing to going live for institutions. If the market believes that the path of “compliance + implementation” is closer to reality, XRP could move toward higher target levels.

From a technical perspective, XRP is trading below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages (approximately $1.60 and $2.00, respectively). The RSI has fallen below 50, and near-term momentum is tilted to the bearish side. The key support zone is between $1.25 and $1.30. If the close falls below $1.30, it would signal further correction; below that, attention should be on the $1.20 long-term support area. On the upside, a break above the $1.35 to $1.42 resistance zone is needed to confirm a reversal. An Arizona bill is under review to include XRP as a state financial asset; if the bill passes and expectations for ETF approval are met, XRP could rebound to $1.42 and move toward $2.10 within the year.

On the macro front, the Iran-U.S. ceasefire mediation has hit a stalemate—Iran refused to meet with U.S. officials in Islamabad, making it clear that U.S. demands are unacceptable. Amid this ongoing uncertainty, XRP’s practical cross-border payments narrative is in tension with risk-off sentiment. The April price range is expected to be between $1.15 and $1.60, with a high likelihood of relatively narrow trading in the $1.30 to $1.45 range. For long-term investors, the current price offers some valuation appeal, but in the short term, a more clear breakout signal is still needed.
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