#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Analysis of Ethereum (ETH) Price Movement in the Next Two Days

Today, ETH rebounded strongly from a low of 2,022 to 2,155, a 24-hour increase of 5.44%. However, this rebound contains a concerning contradiction: both bulls and bears are betting heavily, while the market fear index remains at a historically low level (13/100, extreme fear).
The rebound is real, but the pressure is also real.
From the 4-hour K-line chart, ETH found support in the 2,022-2,035 range, then surged with increased volume — two large bullish candles covered the decline of the previous three days. The current price has returned near 2,155, with short-term resistance at 2,174 (today’s high), and a more critical resistance at 2,198. If ETH cannot effectively hold above 2,150 in the next two days, this rebound still faces a risk of retracement. On the support side, the 2,040-2,060 zone has been a recent bounce point, and below the 2,000 level, there is the liquidation price of 8,100 ETH long positions held by "Maji" Huang Licheng (at 2,000.46), forming a strong passive defense.
On-chain bulls and bears are battling, and today’s on-chain activity is quite dramatic:
- Bullish signals: Well-known trader "Maji" continues to add to his long positions up to 8,100 ETH (about $17.24 million at an average price of 2,081), showing strong bottom confidence. The Ethereum Foundation is close to reaching its 70k ETH staking target, indicating a clear long-term holding signal from the official side.
- Bearish signals: On the same day, two new wallets opened short positions with approximately $20 million and $7 million worth of ETH at 20x leverage, with opposite directions.
Renowned trader thomasg.eth fully closed positions worth about $26.49 million today (including 4,700 ETH sold to exchange), a clear active reduction of holdings.
• ETF Funds: Last week, ETH spot ETF saw a net outflow of $42.14 million, contrasting sharply with Bitcoin’s net inflow — indicating that institutional sentiment toward ETH remains cautious in the short term.

The key variables influencing the next 48 hours are as follows:
Bullish factors: Charles Schwab will launch spot ETH trading in the first half of the year, with increasing institutional participation; ETH’s USDT issuance surpasses Tron, bringing renewed attention to its stablecoin status; technically, ETH recently experienced a significant short squeeze (over $48 million in short positions liquidated in the past 4 hours).
Bearish factors: The market fear and greed index is at 13, indicating overall sentiment remains extremely pessimistic, with macro news (tariffs, geopolitical issues) potentially triggering further declines; signals of large holders actively reducing their positions should not be ignored; resistance above 2,174 is weak, and once the rebound momentum diminishes, a retest of the 2,040-2,060 range is likely. Additionally, Ethereum network wallet maintenance scheduled for April 7 may temporarily affect deposits and withdrawals, but trading itself will not be impacted.
Overall, ETH is likely to oscillate within the 2,040-2,175 range over the next two days. A breakout above 2,200 would require a significant macro sentiment shift or increased capital inflow; technical recovery alone is currently insufficient. Traders should control their positions and prepare stop-loss plans around the 2,000 level.