Gold has found a short-term foothold, but the macro background remains full of challenges—three key points for gold and silver to watch today:

1. Market Review: Last Friday, due to Good Friday, the US, multiple European countries, Australia, and the Hong Kong Securities Exchange were all closed for one day, and all precious metals under the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), US crude oil, foreign exchange, and stock index futures contracts, as well as Brent crude oil futures contracts under Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), were suspended from trading for the entire day.
2. Key Indicators: The US added 178,000 jobs in March nonfarm payrolls, significantly exceeding expectations, strengthening “higher interest rates for longer” pricing and exerting downward pressure on gold; tensions in the Middle East have intensified—there is less than a 20% probability of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz—oil prices and inflation expectations are moving higher, indirectly constraining gold prices through the interest-rate path; market expectations for rate cuts in the coming months have been clearly revised downward, and there is upward pressure on the real interest rate center; CFTC data shows long and short positions trimming positions in sync, and net long positions are still fluctuating around 160,000 contracts, with capital maintaining a high-level contest.
3. Viewpoint Sharing: Northlight Asset Management’s Chief Investment Officer, Chris Zaccarelli, noted that most employment data was collected before the US and Israel’s joint military strikes on Iran. This shows that the US economy still has resilience, and that is also why the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to restart the rate-cut cycle. With this job market not being weak, it is expected to support consumer spending to remain sustained, which is also a key pillar of US economic development. UBS said that we believe gold has room to rise, and in the second half of the year it could reach $5,900. Historically, gold performs well when inflation and unemployment rates rise. Although higher real yields and a stronger dollar may limit short-term upside, we believe the recent weakness is temporary rather than a structural shift. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战