【US Stock Futures】Pakistan proposes a "two-phase ceasefire plan" Oil prices turn downward

Reuters, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that Iran and the United States have received a plan aimed at ending hostilities. The plan could take effect as early as today and would lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Pakistan drafted a framework agreement to end hostilities and submitted it to Iran and the United States last night. The framework is based on a “two-phase approach”: first, reaching an immediate ceasefire, followed by signing a comprehensive agreement. The source said, “All elements must be agreed upon within today.” The source added that the initial understanding would be drafted in the form of a memorandum of understanding (MoU), and finalized through Pakistan; Pakistan is currently the only communication channel between the two sides for the negotiations.

Reuters reported that the expected agreement would involve Iran committing to forgo developing nuclear weapons in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions and the release of Iranian overseas assets.

Oil prices bounced lower; New York crude fell 2%, and Brent crude fell 0.5%.

Iraq reportedly granted approval to pass through the Strait of Hormuz

After news circulated that Iran has exempted Iraq—allowing it to transit the Strait of Hormuz without any restrictions—Reuters reported that the Iraq National State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) has asked its customers to submit their crude oil pickup plans within 24 hours.

Axios reports that mediators from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey are making final efforts to secure a 45-day ceasefire among the United States, Israel, and Iran.

A senior Iranian official warned that if the United States escalates attacks against Iran, global energy routes beyond the Strait of Hormuz could be threatened.

Reuters, citing a SOMO document, said, “Given the situation described above, to ensure the continuity and stability of crude oil export business, we urge your company to submit a pickup plan within 24 hours so that your pickup arrangements can be handled in a timely manner, including vessel nominations and contract cargo quantities, and in full compliance with the agreed terms and conditions.” Since the outbreak of the war, Iraq’s oil production has plunged to about 800k barrels per day.

Strait of Hormuz Current Vessel Navigation Conditions

The document continued: “We hereby reiterate that all loading terminals, including the Basra oil terminal and its related facilities, remain fully operational. SOMO is fully prepared to execute all contracted cargo pickup plans without restriction.”

Trump posted on social media Truth Social: “Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time！（8:00 P.M. Tuesday night in ET!）”, implying that it is the deadline for a final notice, which would be 8:00 a.m. Wednesday in Hong Kong time.

Democrats said Trump’s latest threats toward Iran are “unhinged,” and warned that attacking civilian facilities could constitute war crimes.

Worth noting is that the military situation is urgent, and any news could reverse current market conditions.

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