Don’t be misled by the current short-term rebound; fundamentally, it’s an emotion-driven market, with no fundamental support, so a short-term reversal is hard to hold. When the price spikes up on the chart, it gets sold off immediately; sell pressure continues to be released, showing a standard rebound-distribution pattern. The long upper wick on the weekly timeframe highlights the exhaustion of bullish momentum, and resistance overhead is significant.

The four-hour timeframe is choppy and grind-like; the rebound lacks volume and the momentum is relatively weak, and the bigger direction is still dominated by the bears. The heavy resistance in the 69,000-70,000 area has been validated multiple times, and the attempt to break through has failed. Trading strategy: don’t chase longs on rebounds; when price hits resistance, short directly.

Recommended trade: Enter at 69,000 at the current price. For more prudent traders, plan positions in the 69,400-70,000 range. The downside targets are 67,600-67,000. If it breaks below 66,000, defend by looking at your position sizing.
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