Shouchuang Futures: Weak demand remains despite maintenance slowdown, glass futures continue to decline

Spot market: flat glass spot price is 1161 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. In the North China market, the trend remains largely stable; enterprise outbound shipments vary, downstream orders are average, and procurement willingness is somewhat weak. In the East China market, changes are not significant; deals are generally steady. Enterprises largely hold prices and ship, and some have plans to raise prices in the near term. Downstream demand is mainly driven by rigid needs purchasing.

On the supply side, the 600-ton production line of Guangzhou Fuming released water on the 13th evening, and the 600-ton production line of Chongqing Wansheng Foryao Glass released water for cold maintenance on the 15th. The daily melting volume for float glass further declined to 145.8k tons. There are 207 domestic glass production lines operating, 87 lines under cold maintenance or shut down, and the capacity utilization rate is 73.25%. Last week, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises across the country was 75.85M heavy boxes, down 3.79M heavy boxes month over month, or -4.76% month over month, and up 7.96% year over year. This week, there are expectations of some production lines releasing water, and weekly output may continue to decline.

On the demand side, downstream demand is recovering slowly; orders at deep-processing enterprises are not good. For sheet-glass producers, sustained high inventory pressure continues to weigh on prices. Terminal real estate data remains weak. In the first two months of this year, the year-over-year growth rate of real estate development investment fell by 11.1%, the year-over-year decline in the sales area of commercial housing was 13.5%, and the year-over-year decline in housing completion area was 27.9%.

In summary, production line changes in float glass have led to a slight decline in daily melting volume, and float glass inventories have seen some destocking. However, real estate data has performed weakly, dragging on the glass market. It is expected that in the short term, glass futures prices will trend weakly with range-bound volatility. Pay attention to the movement of cost prices, downstream order conditions, and production-line changes. (CICC Futures)