#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 4.6 Forex, Gold, and Crude Oil Analysis Strategies

The views expressed in this article represent personal opinions. Sharing is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.

【US Dollar Index】  The US Dollar Index last week first fell and then adjusted downward; at one point it pierced below the 20-day line and the trendline support. However, afterward the market rebounded again as concerns that the US-Iran situation would escalate intensified, and it ultimately returned to above the moving-average band and the 100 integer level. The market was closed last Friday, and the non-farm payroll data performed strongly, which also caused the US Dollar Index to open slightly higher today. Based on the current daily chart structure, in the short term the US Dollar Index has conditions to rise further. The lower daily moving-average band and the trendline have already been lifted to around 99.9-98; as long as the market does not drop back below this level in the short term, the US Dollar Index may be expected to test the 100.5-100.6 area in the future. That said, the biggest short-term variable for the US Dollar Index still lies in fundamentals. If there are signs that the US and Iran will come to an agreement this week, the US Dollar Index may break below the moving-average band and the trendline, and the uptrend would also be fundamentally damaged. If negotiations still cannot be resolved, then the probability of a sideways-to-upward rally for the US Dollar Index is higher.  As for non-USD currencies, at the start of this week conservative traders are choosing a wait-and-see approach rationally; the more aggressive will still first look for a correction adjustment and retracement. But in the short term, the key focus must still be the disruption risk that fundamental news brings to the market.

【Gold】  Last week, gold continued its rise by riding a technical rebound trend. Its high at one point tested pressure near the 20-day line around 4800 without breaking it. On Thursday, the market saw a pullback and adjustment influenced by Trump’s remarks, and the adjustment range was somewhat larger; at one point it tried to revisit the 10-day line. Then it rebounded again and closed around 4680, with a daily candle that formed a bearish body accompanied by a lower shadow.  From the perspective of the daily chart structure, gold’s rebound trend last week is destined not to last. First, technically it has risen for multiple consecutive days and it faces resistance from the 20-day line above; a short-term pressured adjustment is unavoidable. Second, in recent times gold and the US Dollar Index have been moving in an inversely synchronized rhythm—market-news factors are more likely to lean toward being favorable for the US dollar, which in turn has suppressed gold. After losing fundamental positive support, the difficulty for gold to remain bullish in the medium term is very high. Influenced by the strong non-farm payroll data last Friday, gold opened lower and moved lower throughout the week so far; in the short term it is even weaker. For this week, on the upside you can first watch for the 5-day line and the gap around 4650-4670 for potential fill. If the fill does not break through, the overall weakness will be more obvious. On the downside, you can further watch for the battle near the 10-day line around 4570; once the 10-day line is lost, gold can be clearly regarded technically as returning to a medium-term weak downward trend. If during the week the price rebounds back to above the 5-day line and above today’s gap level, then on the upside you can focus again on the contest near the 20-day line around 4750. As long as this level is not broken, gold will still be biased toward weak consolidation. If the consolidation time between the 10- and 20-day lines becomes longer, then the medium-term trend will still relatively be biased downward.  Combined with the hourly chart trend, early this week gold is still expected to continue with an adjustment and pullback. On the upside, 4650 and 4680 will both have clear resistance pressure in the short term. If prices break through and stand above 4700, then during the first half of the week the market may be affected by sudden news. On the start of the week, watch first for the battle around 4570-4550; once this level is broken, the adjustment pace may accelerate and expand.  
① At the beginning of the week, gold still mainly focuses on selling from higher levels to bet on downside. Although the 10-day line provides support below, under the influence of fundamentals right now, the probability of breaking down is also very large. Therefore, for the time being, it is still not considering any short-term long positions.  
② For the more aggressive at the start of the week, you can try shorting in batches near the rebound levels 4650 and 4680. If it holds above 4700, manually set a stop loss. For the target on the downside, first reduce positions around 4580-4550; then see whether the remaining positions can fall back below the 10-day line. If it falls back, continue holding; if it does not break, adjust accordingly based on the situation in the news.

【Crude Oil】  WTI crude oil last week first adjusted early, falling back to around the 10-day line. Then on Thursday, the market was lifted again due to Trump’s remarks; it broke through the trendline resistance at 108.5 in one move, with the high pressing to around 113.9. After that, although there was a pullback, the extent was limited, and the daily candle closed as a large bullish candle. During the weekend, market news did not improve much, leading to a gap-up high open today for US oil, which tested pressure around 115.3. But because there was no definite news to further drive it, US oil then saw a retracement and has already filled the gap-up opening.  Based on the current daily and hourly chart structure, this week’s key for US oil is to hold the bullish effect brought by Thursday’s rally. On the downside, especially, watch the contest around 100.5 and also the battle in the 109-108.5 area. If these two levels can be defended, then the adjustment will be only technical. Later, if there is favorable news, US oil may have another chance to push higher again. On the upside, it may be able to be watched around 115, and even make a new high around 120. If the 100.5-108.5 area cannot be held, then in the short term US oil may fall into persistent sideways consolidation or a corrective adjustment in terms of range. But the level of such adjustment still needs to be combined with the situation in the news; it will be relatively complex and changeable.  

In terms of this week’s trading approach, conservatively you can choose to observe for now and avoid the current market being overly sensitive to news and the market volatility being too intense, as well as the uncertainty risk hidden while US oil is staying at a high level. For the aggressive at the start of the week, you can moderately try first to look for a technical correction and pullback. But the room should not be too large. After a retracement support is held, then consider taking short-term long positions; also consider the possibility that news could bring further positive triggers and stimulate additional upside.