1. Trend Judgment

Short-term rebound encounters resistance, bears dominate, and shorting on rallies is the main strategy.
Currently still in a medium-term downtrend channel. Weekend rebounds are weak corrections with no volume and no funds, prone to quick pullbacks and secondary lows.
2. Core Logic for Bearish Outlook
1. Moving averages suppress the price, rebound is weak
• Daily and 4-hour moving averages are fully in a bearish alignment (EMA/SMA all above the price), with 67,500–68,000 acting as short-term strong resistance.
• Rebounds with decreasing volume, declines with increasing volume, dominated by selling pressure.
• Multiple rebounds form lower highs, indicating the trend remains unchanged.
2. Indicators turning at high levels, signaling bearishness
• RSI: Rebounds to around 60 and turns downward, not entering overbought territory, indicating exhausted bullish momentum.
• KDJ: Dead cross at high levels, with a high risk of short-term decline.
• Bollinger Bands: Rebound after touching the upper band, with the middle band turning downward, indicating a bearish pattern.
Bitcoin: Rebound to 69,000–69,300
First target: 68,200
Second target: 67,000