Analyst: The current average cost of all Bitcoin loss positions is only $93,600.

ME News message. On April 6 (UTC+8), crypto analyst Murphy posted on X stating that the current average cost basis of all loss-making “BTC lots” is only $93,600. In other words, given the current loss structure, if BTC simply rises back to $93,000 (i.e., $93k), it would bring the average cost basis of the loss-making lots back to break-even. Although there are still many lots trapped above the current level, it can be inferred that during the two rapid sell-offs at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, a large number of holders who were trapped at high prices must have chosen to cut losses and exit, which is what dragged down the overall average cost basis of the floating loss lots. This figure corresponds to a 30-day deviation coefficient of 1.4 versus the current BTC price. Meanwhile, in the past 3 bear-market bottoms, the deviation coefficient has always been at least above 2.0—greater than or equal to 2.0. This means that when BTC enters the absolute bottom range, its price is only a little less than half of the “average cost basis of loss-making lots.” To satisfy this condition, BTC this time would have to drop to $46,800. If it doesn’t drop to that level, then this will be the most unusual bear market in history, because in terms of “pain severity,” it will be much lighter than any prior bear market. (Source: PANews)