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Iran tripled its oil export rate in the 2 weeks before the strikes.
They frontloaded every barrel they could get through Hormuz before it closed. Those ships are still at sea.
A VLCC runs at 12–15 knots fully loaded.
Once it clears the strait, the war is someone else’s problem.
Transit times from the Gulf:
🇮🇳 India: 5–7 days
🇯🇵 Japan / South Korea: 20 days
🇨🇳 China: 22–25 days
🇪🇺 Europe via Suez: 19 days, via Cape: 35 days
🇺🇸 US Gulf Coast: 25–49 days depending on route
🇦🇺 Australia: imports refined fuel from Asian refineries that import crude
The last pre war cargoes are landing now.
The US bound barrels don’t dock until mid April. Until then, refineries are still running on crude from a world that no longer exists.