Everbright Futures: Soft Commodities Daily Report for March 31

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Sugar:

(Zhang Xiaojin, practitioner qualification number: F0306200; trading advisory qualification number: Z0000082)

In terms of news, from March 27 to 30, Guangxi added 10 sugar mills for crushing and refining. As of March 30, in the 2025/26 crushing season, the cumulative number of sugar mills in Guangxi that have started crushing has reached 38, and the overall progress is already past the halfway point. In the spot market, the quotation range from Guangxi Sugar Group is 5430~5510 yuan/ton, up by 10~20 yuan/ton; the quotation from Yunnan Sugar Group is 5280~5340 yuan/ton, with some up by 10 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation range from processing sugar mills is 5690~5860 yuan/ton, with some up by 10 yuan/ton. Regarding raw sugar, after an earlier period of significant cumulative gains, prices fell back and adjusted from the overnight high point yesterday. Risks in April for crude oil still remain, and the sugar-to-biomass ratio at the start of Brazil’s crushing season is unstable; there are many catalysts, so we should still treat it as a broad-range consolidation. In China, Guangxi and Yunnan sugar mills are resuming the end of crushing one after another, supply is sufficient, and inventories are also at a high level in recent years. There are both external support and domestic supply pressure. The turning point in the future lies in the import side; the market is currently shifting positions, and there is unlikely to be a trend-driven market in the short term—so we should treat it as consolidation.

Cotton:

(Sun Chengzhen, practitioner qualification number: F03099994; trading advisory qualification number: Z0021057)

On Monday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.88%, closing at 70.07 U.S. cents per pound. Zheng cotton’s main contract increased 0.03% month-over-month, closing at 15,385 yuan/ton. The open interest in the main contract decreased by 16,089 lots month-over-month to 515,100 lots. The spot price index for cotton 3128B was 16,560 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous day. In the international market, the conflict in the Middle East continues for now; crude oil prices have been fluctuating and strengthening. However, gold has not shown any clear decline. The U.S. Dollar Index has rebounded again to above 100, and the center of gravity of U.S. cotton futures prices has shifted upward. A downward revision to the 2026 U.S. cotton production forecast provides some support to U.S. cotton futures prices. In the domestic market, Zheng cotton futures are consolidating within a narrow range, with limited macro-level disturbances. At present, market attention is more focused on fundamentals. Domestic new cotton is about to start planting. A decline in cotton planted area in Xinjiang in 2026 has basically become a foregone conclusion, but there is some analysis regarding the magnitude of the production reduction. Longer-dated contracts are performing relatively strongly, and this has already been reflected to a certain extent in pricing. Looking back at history: over the past 20 years, whenever domestic and global cotton production and the year-over-year changes in the cotton stocks-to-consumption ratio both declined, Zheng cotton futures’ average year-to-date gain exceeded 9%, and the year-to-date peak gain exceeded 25%. As of now, the year-to-date gain in 2026 Zheng cotton futures is below the historical average. Overall, there are many factors disturbing the market in the short term. We need to pay attention to planting willingness and also the next round of cotton target price subsidy policy typically announced in early April. In the short term, it may trade with repeated fluctuations.

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All information in this report is sourced from publicly available materials. Our company makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of this information, and we also do not guarantee that the information and recommendations contained in it will not change. We have endeavored to make the content of this report objective and fair, but the views, conclusions, and recommendations in the text are for reference only and do not constitute any promotion of specific products or business, nor any basis or recommendations for operating the relevant commodities. Any investment decisions made by investors based on this are at their own risk, and are unrelated to this company or the author.

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Editor: Li Tiemin