Economists: The US March CPI Monthly Rate Expected to Rise to 1%, The Federal Reserve May Find It Difficult to Cut Rates This Year

Recently, some economists analyzed that given the recent sharp increase in US gasoline prices has directly affected consumers' perceptions, this change is expected to be prominently reflected in the key inflation data to be released next week.

According to the latest data from Investing.com, the market expects the US March CPI to rise to 1% next Friday, which would be the largest single-month increase since August 2022; at the same time, the US core CPI is forecasted to increase to 2.7%.

Affected by Middle East geopolitical conflicts, US gasoline prices have risen over $1 per gallon since late February. Additionally, the inflation indicator monitored by the Federal Reserve shows that inflationary pressures were already present before the outbreak of this round of conflict.

Furthermore, according to the latest data from TradingEconomics, the core PCE price index is expected to increase for the third consecutive month in April. This trend also indicates that the process of inflation easing back to moderate levels had already reversed before the conflict erupted.

In summary, combined with the gradual stabilization of the US labor market, persistent inflation pressures, new inflation risks brought by Middle East conflicts, and the generally expected data from CME Fed, these factors collectively explain why the Federal Reserve may find it difficult to cut rates this year.

#CPI #Cut rates