$ETH Evening thoughts:


The second pancake on the hourly chart has been oscillating below the median line of the range. There was an attempt to break through the median line, but the resistance at 2090 was too strong, and it was pushed back down. As long as the second pancake cannot break above 2090 on the daily chart, the bulls will remain in a weak phase. Only when it breaks through 2090 can the bullish trend on the hourly chart re-enter a strong zone. Additionally, since the second pancake has been operating below the median line of the range, there is a high probability of testing the lower boundary at 1977. Once 1977 breaks below the previous low of 1936, it will trigger a downward test, forming a double bottom on the hourly chart with a potential for a rebound. The more it tests downward and bounces back, the stronger the upward momentum. However, if it breaks through directly and cannot recover, that would be problematic.

The second pancake with volume breaking above 2056 should be followed with long positions on the rebound. If it drops below 2038 with volume, consider short positions on the downside. Pay attention to volume changes and set proper stop-losses.
On the hourly chart, if it stabilizes above 2056, look for targets at 2094-2128.
On the 4-hour chart, if it breaks below 2046, look for support at 2013-1966.

As for the daily chart, it seems to be forming a head and shoulders pattern. It was very close to being invalidated, but the pattern was not destroyed because the second pancake failed to hold above 2139. The right shoulder of the head and shoulders is gradually forming, with the lower target levels at 1905 and 1815. To invalidate the head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart, it must break and hold above 2139; otherwise, the formation remains very likely.
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HaoShirvip
· 04-04 13:30
Analyzing the second pancake is meaningless. When the big pancake drops, it will definitely follow the decline.
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