Are you afraid of BTC at $67,000?

Q1 dropped 18%, the Fear & Greed index once hit 8, indicating extreme fear—more intense than the 2022 bear market. Three consecutive months of decline, the worst start in history. Your BTC holdings have fallen from 120k yuan, nearly halved. Some say the bull is dead, others say this time is different. You look at your account, and your heart is bleeding.

First, look at the surface: everyone’s numb from the drop, no one’s trading anymore.

BTC is currently at $67,000, up 0.4% in the past 24 hours, as if nothing happened. But don’t be fooled by this 0.4%—it’s from a drop from 69k, nearly $3,000 lost in a day. The MACD on the four-hour chart just turned positive, but the daily chart is still below water. Trading volume has shrunk like a river in the desert—low volume decline, low volume rebound. The market is like a dead pond.

First thing: institutions are secretly working.

Charles Schwab launched “Schwab Crypto,” directly allowing trading of BTC and ETH. This isn’t some fly-by-night exchange; it’s a Wall Street giant managing trillions of dollars. Spot ETFs bought $1.32 billion worth of BTC in March, ending four months of net outflows.

Second, supply is locked, miners are selling.

BTC’s average dollar-investment age (MDIA) has risen to 435 days, the highest in nearly a year. This means most people are not selling; the chips are locked in cold wallets. But on the other side, Riot Platforms just sold a large batch of BTC. Miner profitability is under pressure, and selling pressure continues.

Third, profit-supply has fallen to 11.2 million coins, close to the 9 million low during the 2022 bear market.

This data is the one you should really pay attention to. During the 2022 bear market bottom, 9 million BTC were in profit. And then? Then came the big bull run from 16k to 120k. Now, with 11.2 million, although not at an extreme bottom, it’s far from the 120k bubble.

One side: Q1’s worst start ever, macro pressure, miner selling.

Other side: institutional ETF inflows, new all-time high in coin addresses, 69% win rate in April.

The key level: $65,900—that’s the life and death line for bulls and bears.

Why $65,900? Because it’s the last line of defense after the head and shoulders neckline break. From late February to now, this level has been tested repeatedly and held.

If it holds, a rebound to $68,900 → $70,500 is possible. Breaks above that, and there’s room to $72k–$75k.

If it doesn’t hold, the next stop is $64,900. Break that, and it’s the psychological $60k mark.

Short-term traders:

Buy in batches below 66k, with stops at 65k. Reduce positions by 20-30% above 68.5k.

Focus on two things: liquidity release after tax season on April 15, and the Iran situation. If either eases, BTC could return to 70k.

Long-term players:

Now is the time to build positions gradually. At 66k, 64k, 60k—buy more each time it dips. Don’t wait for the bottom, because no one can catch the exact lowest point.

Q1’s worst start ever, but historically, April averages a 12.4% gain. When the Fear index hits 8, you don’t buy. Are you waiting for the Greed index to hit 90 before buying? #Gate广场四月发帖挑战 $BTC