I just realized something quite interesting about how projects handle open-token unlocking issues. This is one of the less noticed factors, but it has a huge impact on the price.

Basically, when a project launches, they don’t release all tokens at once. Instead, they lock a large portion allocated for the team, investors, advisors, and the community according to a roadmap called a vesting schedule. This is to prevent the situation where whales dump immediately.

But in reality, unlocking tokens is a double-edged sword. I’ve been following a few cases, and it’s clear that market sentiment is very sensitive to these kinds of events. When investors know that an unlocking event is coming up, they often sell beforehand, creating downward pressure even before the tokens are actually unlocked.

Take the TRUMP coin as an example. Last April, when news broke that 40 million tokens—about 20% of the circulating supply—were about to unlock, everyone feared a sell-off. But then the price recovered strongly afterward. Right now, its price is hovering around 2.85 USD, very different from that time. This shows that unlocking tokens doesn’t always lead to negative outcomes.

On the other hand, with Aptos (APT), I see a different pattern repeating. Before each time the tokens unlock, the price usually sits near the local bottom, then starts rising and peaks exactly at the time of the token unlock. It creates an artificially positive feeling for the market. But afterward, it drops sharply. Currently, APT is at 0.84 USD, with a downtrend of 2.58% over the past 24 hours.

The most important point I want to emphasize is this: not every token unlock is a bad signal. It depends on three main factors. First is the amount of tokens being unlocked compared with the total circulating supply—if it’s too large, the selling pressure will be tremendous. Second is who will receive the tokens—if it falls into the hands of the team or early investors who already have large profits, the likelihood of selling to take profit is higher. Third is what the market sentiment is like at that time.

I usually use Tokenomist to track the token unlock schedules for the projects I hold. This tool provides pretty detailed information: the amount, the percentage, who will receive it, and the specific schedule. DeFiLlama is also fine—you can filter by date or by unlock amount.

The best approach is still not to make decisions based only on the token unlock schedule. Analyze more deeply: what are the motivations of the people receiving the tokens, whether there’s any positive news coming along with the unlock, and what the overall market is doing. Combine tracking token unlocks with technical analysis and news to make smarter decisions. Wishing you successful trading.