Analysis: Non-farm data still shows significant volatility, and the Federal Reserve's policy adjustment threshold remains quite high.

MeNews · 2026-04-04T10:00:07+00:00

Creditsights' Zachary Griffiths pointed out that the data is highly volatile and frequently revised, making it difficult to obtain clear policy signals from recent net data. The Federal Reserve may remain on the sidelines with high thresholds, and future rate hikes will be challenging while the likelihood of rate cuts remains low.

MeNews

2026-04-04 10:00:07

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ME News message, April 3 (UTC+8): Creditsights investment-grade credit desk head Zachary Griffiths said that the data still has further downward revisions. In February, it was reduced by 133,000, which shows that the data has clear volatility and frequent revisions. This is usually revised again during annual reviews, so it’s difficult to obtain a clear signal from the net data over the past few months. As for the Federal Reserve’s policy based on these data, the threshold for any policy adjustment is currently very high. I believe they may be in a wait-and-see mode—especially given that we’re seeing employment data significantly exceed expectations, which is far above the level the Federal Reserve has discussed regarding the break-even point between gains and losses corresponding to the unemployment rate. Therefore, we believe the threshold for rate hikes is higher than for rate cuts, but policy may remain unchanged in the foreseeable future, and today’s report undoubtedly further reinforces this view. (Jin10 (Source: ODAILY))

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