VanEck Research Director: BTC derivatives protective demand reaches historical extreme levels, signaling a contrarian bullish indicator

Deep Tide TechFlow message, April 04, VanEck research director Matthew Sigel posted on the X platform to analyze and found that the current protective demand in the bitcoin derivatives market has risen to the 99th percentile of history. It is typically regarded as a “contrarian long signal” amid extreme risk-avoidance sentiment in the market, and he assesses that the market at this stage is suitable for establishing long positions.

Since its inception, the VanEck Digital Transformation ETF (NODE), which is also managed by Matthew Sigel, has risen 27%, while bitcoin has fallen 33% over the same period. It achieves lower volatility performance through diversified allocation and a focus on profitable segments. However, he also warns that if companies’ massive capital expenditures in the artificial intelligence (AI) space cannot generate corresponding returns, it may pose substantial pressure on the market—especially in a context where weight is concentrated in S&P 500 constituent stocks.

Note: A percentile is a statistical position concept. The 99th percentile represents a relatively extreme level, while the 50th percentile represents the horizontal median.