The current game between the US and Iran has become a core variable influencing the global economy and cryptocurrency prices. The US’s series of moves not only caused panic in Asian stock markets but also inadvertently helped itself by significantly easing the pressure of dollar depreciation and capital outflows.

The underlying logic here is quite clear. Trump’s rise to power represents the interests of traditional “old money,” and the Nasdaq bubble is now visibly bursting. Taking advantage of the conflict, capital has naturally shifted from tech stocks to traditional energy sectors, completing a major reshuffle. It’s important to note that the US is now the world’s largest oil producer, and soaring oil prices are directly enriching the old money, perfectly aligning with the interests of the financial backers behind the scenes.
The upcoming scenario (personal view):
The US is unlikely to stop this wave and may even launch a larger one later.
• Action targets: For example, precise strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities or Hark Island, while also sending a message to Middle Eastern powers to stir regional tensions further.
• Final outcome: Once strategic goals are achieved, they will unilaterally declare a “major historic victory” and then withdraw troops with a pat on the back.
Trading perspective and response strategies:
• Cryptocurrency market (beware of downside risk): According to this macro script, crypto prices are likely to experience another significant drop, with a high probability of falling below previous lows. The current suspense is whether it will “drop sharply all at once” or “initially rally then crash.” Honestly, my plan in April was to wait for a rebound and break above 76,000 before entering short positions, but the rebound was too weak, and the next day the monthly chart started turning downward, which is a very dangerous warning sign.
• Current best targets (shorting Japan and South Korea): Setting aside the crypto market, I personally believe the most comfortable risk-reward strategy right now is shorting Japanese and South Korean stock indices. Especially the Japanese stock market, where geopolitical fears combined with Japan’s own “debt crisis” could create a huge downward space with significant potential.