Dear viewers, good Saturday afternoon.

Open the Ethereum candlestick chart — it’s hovering around $2,052, looking very much like a weekend slacker roommate, neither willing to fully lie down (not below $2000), nor able to muster the energy to get up (not stable above $2100). The entire market is written with four big words: Don’t bother me, hesitating.

But don’t be fooled by this lazy appearance. The waters beneath this level are much more turbulent than you think. Today, we’ll take a closer look at what Ethereum’s "world computer" has been calculating lately.

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🎯 A number that keeps shorts awake at night: Longs are almost wiped out, and there are no more counterparties for shorts

Let’s start with a counterintuitive discovery: the derivatives market has already been "liquidated."

According to CryptoQuant data, the total open interest across all Ethereum derivatives exchanges is now only $13.4 billion, back to the levels seen in the 2023 bear market. What does this mean? When ETH broke above $4,500 at the end of 2025, this number peaked at $33 billion. Now, it’s shrunk by nearly 60%.

Some might say: "Oh, the open interest has fallen, that means everyone’s bearish, time to run!"

Wrong. No counterparties means real risk.

With only $13.4 billion, the kind of chain-reaction liquidations and long-short battles that used to create big scenes are now basically impossible. What does this imply? If the price drops from here, the main driving force will come from spot sellers panicking and fleeing, rather than from chain reactions in futures liquidations. To put it plainly — if it really falls, it will be a slow, hesitant decline, not a waterfall. The former still gives retail traders time to react; the latter leaves you no chance to place orders.

It’s like a boxer realizing the opponent has already fallen, but then not knowing how to throw punches. The current awkwardness for shorts is: wanting to dump but can’t find enough counterparties to take their orders.

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📊 What game is the candlestick playing? — A string being pulled tight

Looking at the daily chart, Ethereum’s trend can be summarized in four words: "A strong sense of oppression."

Since failing to rally in March, the price has been playing a game of "highs and lows, slowly drifting downward." Ali Martinez’s weekly analysis is straightforward — ETH is moving within a descending channel from its $4,870 all-time high. The $2,060 level is precisely the last effective line of defense before the channel dips further.

In plain language: this life (the $2000 level) is hanging by a thread. How long this breath can last depends on whether ETH can effectively turn over and build momentum above $2000. Currently, the most critical resistance is still in the $2,150–$2,400 range, which has acted as a resistance zone seven times over the past two months.

Some analysts mention $1,925 as a deeper bottom support. If broken, there’s a theoretical chance of testing the year's low at $1,736, where derivatives liquidation pressure could reach about $2.4 billion.

Here’s a subtle point: many technical indicators are signaling oversold conditions, such as MACD showing bullish momentum building, RSI hovering near 30, and the lower Bollinger Band providing some support. But these signals haven’t yet translated into a real rebound because — nobody wants to be the first to charge forward. Everyone is waiting for others to move first.

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🐋 On-chain game theory: Who’s cutting losses, who’s sneaking in?

Looking only at candlesticks isn’t enough; we need to see who’s actually moving chips behind the scenes.

First, the painful truth. Over the past week, Ethereum spot ETF net outflows totaled about $207 million. Institutional funds are systematically retreating, marking three consecutive weeks of net outflows. Meanwhile, ETH futures funding rates have turned near zero or negative, meaning short positions are not only paying but could even be earning money. Shorts hold a dominant voice in the derivatives market.

Not looking too good, right?

But on the flip side, there are very different signals.

First, the Ethereum Foundation recently staked about $140 million worth of ETH themselves. Whether it’s for show or a statement, a multi-billion-dollar organization locking up such a large amount of funds at least indicates one thing — they don’t believe this is the end of the rally.

Second, and even more crucial — some whales are quietly accumulating near the $2000 level. On-chain data shows that certain large holders are quietly buying at this level, forming a de facto support base. While this isn’t yet a full-scale reversal signal, it suggests that some believe this price isn’t too expensive.

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🔮 Macro perspective: IMF’s cold water vs RWA’s hot growth

After discussing on-chain, let’s talk about what’s happening outside.

Bad news: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its "Global Financial Stability Report" in early April, and for the first time, officially warned about systemic risks from asset tokenization, citing potential valuation mismatches and liquidity issues during economic downturns. This indicates increasing regulatory uncertainty.

Good news: While IMF is pouring cold water, the on-chain value of RWA (Real World Assets) on Ethereum has already surpassed $36 billion. Since the start of the year, it has grown over 100%. US Treasuries, private credit — these "real assets" are being gradually moved onto the chain, and the infrastructure supporting all this is Ethereum.

Even more noteworthy, developers are fully preparing for the Glamsterdam upgrade. This upgrade introduces "parallel transaction processing," aiming to boost mainnet TPS to the ten-thousand level. If all goes well, it will be another milestone performance leap for Ethereum after Pectra.

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📍 Draw the battleground: Support and resistance

**🟡 Psychological line: $2,000**
The market’s emotional dividing line. Falling below and closing under $1,980 gives bears a psychological advantage.

**🔴 Key level to watch: $1,900–$1,925**
If broken, the next stop in the downtrend could be **$1,736** (yearly low), or even deeper structural support at $1,550.

**🟢 Reversal threshold: $2,150**
The level that has rejected price seven times over the past two months. Only a strong volume breakout above here signals a real bullish counterattack.

**🟠 True ceiling: $2,400**
If $2,400 is broken, with the next resistance at $2,800, that would be a real "turnaround and sing."

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🔮 How will the next few days unfold?

Ethereum’s current situation is like someone groping in the dark: standing on a not-so-solid $2000 stone, with a wall at $2150 pressing down, both sides pulling, but no one dares to let go first.

The liquidation pressure from derivatives and low funding rates, plus continuous ETF outflows, make short-term downside risks significant. But equally important are the Glamsterdam upgrade expectations and the rapid growth of RWA, which provide medium-term fundamental support — a rare "divergence" between short-term price and long-term value.

If you’re a long-term investor, the $2000 area is already worth paying attention to in stages. If you’re a short-term trader, it’s advisable to buy high and sell low within the $2,000–$2,150 range, strictly following stop-loss rules — weekend liquidity is poor, don’t give exchanges a chance to hunt you.

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✍ Finally, a few words

The hardest part of trading isn’t predicting the right direction, but knowing what to do when the direction is wrong.

Hold $2000? What’s my plan?
Break $2150? What’s my plan?
Fall below $1900? What’s my plan?

Thinking through these three scenarios is a thousand times more important than guessing whether it will go up or down tomorrow.

That’s all for today’s analysis. Wishing everyone a great weekend, see you Monday.

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Risk warning: The above content reflects personal opinions only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; please make decisions cautiously according to your own risk tolerance. $ETH