Quantum computing poses the same fundamental threat to mainstream cryptocurrencies, primarily by cracking their elliptic curve-based digital signatures (such as ECDSA). However, the risk levels and the difficulty of response vary greatly across different projects.

Ethereum faces the highest and most complex risk. It not only affects wallet transfers but also undermines its proof-of-stake consensus relying on BLS signatures, as well as the entire DeFi and smart contract ecosystem. Upgrading requires replacing underlying cryptography without disrupting thousands of applications and contracts—a massive and challenging project that is expected to take several years.

In contrast, Bitcoin's situation is simpler. Its functionality is straightforward, and the main threat is focused on "transfer signatures." The community plans to introduce a new quantum-resistant address type (such as bc1r) through a soft fork, allowing users to gradually migrate assets. While this path requires community consensus, the technical goal is clear.

Projects like Ripple and Solana may be more flexible in their response. Ripple's ledger, due to its validator governance structure, has already begun integrating post-quantum signature algorithms on testnets, potentially making the upgrade process smoother. Chains like Solana, which iterate quickly on technology, are also actively exploring hash-based quantum-resistant solutions.

The conclusion is: in the long run, all cryptographic networks must upgrade—this is an industry survival requirement. But in the short term, the greatest risk to users remains poor private key management, not quantum computing. Ordinary users only need to maintain good habits: never reuse addresses and use the latest wallet software to prepare for a smooth transition in the future.

Weekend Market Forecast:

This weekend's market tone is expected to be weak and volatile, with higher risk. The main reason is that traditional financial markets are closed for Easter, leading to reduced overall liquidity. During such times, any unexpected news can be amplified, causing sharp fluctuations.

Currently, the market is under multiple negative pressures: geopolitical tensions are increasing risk aversion, leading to sell-offs in risk assets like Bitcoin; expectations for Fed rate cuts are being delayed; Bitcoin spot ETF funds continue to flow out, with no new capital entering.

For Bitcoin, key levels to watch are: strong resistance between $68,500 and $69,000, which is difficult to break; and key support at $65,000 to $65,800. A volume breakdown below this could lead to further declines toward $63,500 or lower.

Operational principles emphasize risk reduction: avoid high leverage, as liquidity is thin and "liquidation spikes" are likely. Stay away from altcoins, which tend to be more volatile. Lastly, keep an eye on developments in the Middle East over the weekend and market sentiment after the US stock market opens on Monday.

Overall, the current market is under dual pressure from "low sentiment" and "capital outflows." The weekend is more suitable for cautious observation and defense rather than active bottom-fishing.
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