Non-farm employment data is strong, but what truly determines the market is not it… The latest figures look “optimistic”: U.S. employment remains robust and exceeds expectations. But what the market is really watching is something else—oil prices. Tensions in the Middle East are heating up; crude oil supply is disrupted, directly pushing up inflation expectations. This creates a key shift: even without rate hikes, interest rates may “rise passively,” amounting to an effective tightening of liquidity. On the surface, it’s stable jobs; but in essence, inflation is taking control of the tempo again. Many people are still watching non-farm payrolls, but the real wind direction has already quietly changed. Those who understand this layer usually won’t wait for the market to react.