In early April 2026, the international crude oil market is experiencing a "storm-like" shakeout driven by extreme geopolitical premiums, with a rare "spot premium versus futures divergence" pattern—spot Brent prices have surged to $141.37 per barrel, hitting a new high since 2008, while futures have not fully caught up, with WTI front-month contracts around $111.5, and the spot-futures spread reaching about $30.

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1. Market Review: Volatility Throughout the Month, Extreme Distortion

In March 2026, the international crude oil market staged a rare rollercoaster:

First phase (early to mid-March): Rapid price surge. Brent soared from $75 to over $118, nearly a 40% increase in one month. Around March 9, both WTI and Brent re-entered the $100+ per barrel zone, as geopolitical tensions triggered a "war pricing mode."

Second phase (late March): Sharp two-way volatility. On March 23, after Trump posted messages about US-Iran talks on social media, prices plunged over 10% intraday, with WTI dropping to a low of $85.5. But subsequent news and geopolitical realities caused prices to rebound quickly, with Brent back above $100 by the end of March, and volatility reaching its highest in nearly four years.

Third phase (early April to now): Spot prices soared to extremes. Spot Brent broke through $140, and Trump's tough rhetoric shattered expectations of an end to the conflict, with WTI settlement prices surpassing $110 for the first time since 2022.

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2. Core Driving Logic: Two Major Forces in Fierce Tug-of-War

⚠ Short-term push: Three signals resonating together

First, the continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, creating an unprecedented supply gap. Iran's ongoing blockade restricts about 20 million barrels of oil transportation daily, accounting for 48% of global crude trade and 20% of global consumption. In March, Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait had to significantly cut production due to inability to export normally, reducing total output by 8 million barrels per day—the largest supply disruption in history. The IEA has sharply downgraded its global supply growth forecast for 2026 from 2.4 million barrels/day to 1.1 million barrels/day.

Second, spot shortages trigger panic premiums. Due to physical crude scarcity, the immediate spot Brent (Dated Brent) price has surged above $141, well above futures, indicating extreme market concern over physical shortages. Citigroup warns that if the Strait remains closed for an extended period, Brent prices in Q2 and Q3 could reach $130 per barrel.

Third, fluctuating comments from Trump create extreme volatility. Market expectations for US-Iran negotiations have been repeatedly stirred: Trump announced a deal with Iran in late March, which Iran denied, then Trump denied Iran's denial, creating a "Rashomon" scenario. But in early April, Trump's tough rhetoric again shattered hopes for a ceasefire, causing prices to spike immediately. The US administration's emotional influence on oil prices has become a key pricing variable alongside actual supply and demand.

📉 Suppression factors: Three forces restraining short-term gains

First, US commercial crude inventories unexpectedly increased. As of the week ending March 27, the EIA reported US commercial crude stocks rose by 5.45M barrels to 462 million barrels, hitting a new high since June 2023, far exceeding the expected 800k barrel increase. Even amid the severe supply disruptions in March, domestic inventories continued to build, partially offsetting the impact of Middle Eastern supply cuts.

Second, demand has started to shrink due to high oil prices. The IEA has lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 from 850k barrels/day to 640k barrels/day, with March and April demand revised down by about 1 million barrels/day from previous estimates. High prices are already suppressing consumption, creating a negative feedback loop.

Third, OPEC+ plans to increase production to offset the shortfall. On April 5, OPEC+ members will hold a meeting to consider further raising quotas in preparation for a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a "flood" of oil. Although the previous April agreement to increase output by 206k barrels/day was not implemented due to geopolitical tensions, signals of increased production from OPEC+ continue to exert downward pressure on market sentiment.

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3. Institutional Views Comparison: Goldman Sachs Bullish, Divergent Long-term Logic

Institution Core View
Goldman Sachs Significantly raises oil price forecasts, lifting 2026 Brent average from $77 to $85 per barrel, and WTI from $72 to $79; expects high prices to persist long-term, and believes the price shocks are not yet sufficient to trigger Fed rate hikes
JPMorgan Diverges notably from Goldman, previously forecasting 2026 Brent average only $53-60 per barrel
Galaxy Securities Expect Brent to fluctuate around $100 in April, with increased short-term volatility, and advise closely monitoring US-Iran negotiations
EIA From a full-year perspective, the global oil market will be oversupplied, with 2026 supply estimated at about 107.04 million barrels/day and demand at about 105.17 million barrels/day, with prices gradually returning to a lower equilibrium in the medium to long term
Citigroup If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed long-term and energy infrastructure suffers widespread attacks, Brent prices in Q2 and Q3 could reach $130 per barrel

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4. Current Price Levels and Key Nodes

As of April 3, WTI front-month settlement was approximately $111.54 per barrel, Brent around $109.03, but spot prices have already surged above $141. The roughly $30 spot-futures spread signals extreme market distortion—implying that if supply disruptions persist, futures could still see significant upward correction; but if tensions ease and the Strait reopens, this spread could narrow instantly.

Key upcoming dates to watch:

1. April 5 OPEC+ meeting: Eight countries will discuss May production quotas. Even if the agreement has limited immediate impact, the signals released will influence market sentiment.
2. Changes in Strait of Hormuz navigation: This is the core variable in all current oil price forecasts. Any news of reopening could trigger sharp reversals.
3. US midterm election pressures: The surge in oil prices has caused Trump's approval rating to plummet to 36%, a new low, and political pressures may influence US Middle East policy decisions.

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5. Summary: War Premium vs. Demand Destruction in a Race

The current crude oil market is in a rare extreme pattern: "war premium" on the supply side versus "price destruction" on the demand side. Spot markets are showing serious shortages and panic, but futures have not fully priced in these expectations; OPEC+ is trying to signal increased output, yet geopolitical realities continue to tighten supply.

For ordinary investors, the current oil market is a typical "geopolitical blind box"—short-term price movements depend almost entirely on the fate of the Strait of Hormuz and the authenticity of US-Iran negotiations. Any news or rumor can trigger double-digit daily swings, with high risk of chasing rallies or panicking on dips.

#Gate广场四月发帖挑战