US Labor Market Remains Fragile, 40% Recession Risk: EY-Parthenon

On April 4th, Lydia Boussour, Senior Economist at EY-Parthenon, stated that despite a strong rebound in US employment data in March, the labor market remains fragile. She believes that against a backdrop of policy uncertainty, businesses are becoming more cautious, with hiring intentions cooling. Companies are increasingly inclined to protect profit margins and cope by boosting productivity rather than expanding their workforce. “Looking ahead, we expect the labor market in 2026 to be largely frozen, characterized by selective hiring, limited wage growth, and strategic workforce adjustments amidst historically tight labor supply,” Boussour predicted. She anticipates that job growth will be slightly below the breakeven level, and the unemployment rate will gradually rise to around 4.7%. “Given the ongoing Middle East conflict, downside risks dominate, with a 40% probability of recession,” she added.