Just came across this interesting historical perspective on market timing that's been circulating. Back in 1875, this economist named Samuel Benner tried to map out financial cycles and identify the best periods when to make money. Whether you believe in these patterns or not, the framework is pretty fascinating.

So here's how he broke it down. He identified three types of periods in financial markets. First, there are the panic years – these are the rough times when financial crises hit and markets collapse. Think 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019. The pattern suggests roughly every 18 to 20 years we get one of these shocks. The advice for these periods is straightforward: be cautious and don't panic sell.

Then you've got the boom years. These are the periods when to make money through selling. Markets are recovering hard, prices are climbing, and everything feels good. Years like 1928, 1935, 1943, 1953, 1960, 1968, 1973, 1980, 1989, 1996, 2000, 2007, 2016, 2020 fit this pattern. If you're holding assets, these are your window to take profits.

The third category is the recession years – the hard times when prices are crushed and the economy is struggling. 1924, 1931, 1942, 1951, 1958, 1969, 1978, 1985, 1996, 2005, 2012, 2023 are examples. This is actually when smart money moves. Buy low, accumulate assets, then hold until the boom cycles return.

The basic game plan: buy during the downturns when everyone's scared, wait for the recovery, sell during the booms. Skip panic years if you can, or at least don't make emotional decisions. The cycle repeats.

Now, important caveat – this is a historical pattern, not gospel. Real markets get hit by politics, wars, tech disruptions, policy shifts, all kinds of stuff that doesn't fit neat cycles. But as a long-term framework for understanding market rhythms and identifying key periods when to make money? It's worth keeping in your mental model.