In recent days, strange signals appear to have been showing up one after another on the ニューヨーク証券取引所 (New York Stock Exchange). In just 6 days, the so-called Hindenburg Omen has been detected 3 times. Among market analysts, concerns are spreading that this may be a danger signal.

In fact, this signal was developed by mathematician ジム・ミエカ in 1995 and is considered a tool for predicting sudden market declines. Its name is derived from that famous 1937年の有名な飛行船事故. The basic logic is simple: when the market is in a high-price range but the price movements of individual stocks are scattered and contradictory, that contradiction becomes a harbinger of a systemic collapse.

There are 4 conditions for the signal to be determined: the 10-week moving average of the NYSE指数 is rising; the ratio of stocks that update 52-week highs and the ratio of stocks that update 52-week lows are each above 2.2%; the number of stocks updating highs is less than twice the number of stocks updating lows; and the McClellanオシレーター is negative.

Historically, when the Hindenburg Omen appears in clusters, it often suggests the formation of a market top. It also appeared repeatedly before the stock market peak in 2022年初頭, and afterward the market was hit by a serious bear market. However, there are cases where the signal was issued but in reality had no negative impact, so there is also a part that cannot be said for sure. In any case, it seems U.S. stock investors will need to keep a close watch on how things develop next.