I just read Nomura's report on TSMC, and honestly, the numbers are impressive. Analysts from the bank raised the target price of the Taiwanese chipmaker (2330) from 1855 to 2135 new Taiwanese dollars, and this is by no means the end of the story.

Interestingly, Nomura highlights a key problem—serious supply shortages in the market. This means that all forecasts for revenue growth for companies in the AI, semiconductors, and server infrastructure sectors this year will be driven by demand that far exceeds production capacity. TSMC has a clear edge here—thanks to conservative plans to expand capacity, it will be able to fully benefit from the boom driven by Nvidia and Broadcom.

According to the report, TSMC's revenue is expected to grow at a pace of 25-30% per year (in dollars), and this is only the beginning. Nomura keeps its capital expenditure forecast for 2026 at 45-50 billion dollars, but it already sees an acceleration in 2027—investments could reach 55-60 billion.

What’s the most interesting part? Gross margin. Nomura expects that in 2026-2027 it could reach 61.5%. That would be a record. Higher factory load, a better product mix (more HPC), plus urgent orders from customers who can’t wait—this is the ideal combination for margin growth.

As a result, Nomura raised its earnings per share forecasts by 15% for the current year and 19% for the next year. The recommendation remains at "buy." Looking at these figures, it doesn’t surprise me that the market is responding positively to such valuations for the Taiwanese chip manufacturer.