📊 Core Expectations (Mainstream)

• Non-farm employment increase: +60k (previous: -92k)

• Unemployment rate: 4.4% (previous: 4.4%)

• Average hourly earnings month-over-month: +0.3% (previous: +0.4%)

• Average hourly earnings year-over-year: 3.8% (previous: 3.8%)

💡 Key Background

• Reason for February plunge: Mainly due to healthcare strikes and bad weather, leading to negative employment figures.

• March expectation: A technical rebound, but a 60k increase is still relatively weak.

• ADP (Small Non-farm): 62k new jobs in March, slightly above expectations, in line with non-farm payroll forecasts.

• Institutional divergence: Optimistic +150k, Pessimistic -15k (second negative growth).

🧾 Data Impact Brief (Market Logic)

• Better than expected (>150k): US dollar, Treasury yields strengthen, gold, US stocks, and cryptocurrencies come under pressure.

• In line with expectations (50k–80k): Market reaction is moderate, rate cut expectations remain neutral.

• Worse than expected (<50,000): US dollar weakens, gold, US stocks, and cryptocurrencies rebound, with rate cut expectations in June heating up.