Non-Farm Payrolls Night—Is the Crypto World About to Turn the Table Again?

Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. will unleash a double “triple crown” of March unemployment rate and non-farm employment data—an all-out, 5-star, heavyweight event that will directly determine the direction of short-term crypto sentiment.

First, let’s check expectations: the prior unemployment rate was 4.4%, and the forecast is unchanged; non-farm employment had been -92,000, with expectations turning positive to 60,000. The contradictory nature of these data expectations is off the charts—on one hand, the labor market appears to be stabilizing; on the other, weak recovery expectations follow the previous data blow-up.

For the crypto market, this set of data is a barometer for Federal Reserve policy: if the unemployment rate rises more than expected and non-farm employment comes in below expectations, the market will bet on an earlier rate cut, and Bitcoin will most likely see a short-term rebound; if the data beats expectations, rate cut expectations will cool down immediately, the U.S. dollar will strengthen, and the crypto market will most likely come under pressure and dip further—bears can even open positions to bet on a move lower.

Tonight leaves no room to retreat—only volatility. Reminder to everyone: keep your position light and set your stop-losses; don’t get harvested by tricks from the data; on Non-Farm Payrolls night, don’t get greedy—if you’ve got fish on the line, grab it and run.