Been watching the trucking numbers lately and there's something interesting happening. Tender rejections are sitting at nearly 10% right now, which is honestly wild for this time of year. Carriers are turning down shipments left and right, either because they're at capacity or they've found better deals on the spot market. We haven't seen rejection rates this high since 2022.

What's driving this? Well, current freight rates per mile are hovering around $2.62 including fuel. That's down a bit from the December peak of $2.76, but still elevated compared to what we'd normally expect in early year. The market's pretty tight right now, and shippers are feeling the squeeze. Chicago and Harrisburg are getting hit hardest with rejection rates above 9.4%, while LA's sitting pretty at just 4.33%.

Here's what's interesting though - railroads have been eating into truckload volume. Intermodal jumped 8% year-over-year in 2024, and shippers have been routing more freight that way. But if inventory keeps dropping like it did at year-end and consumer spending stays strong, we might see that flip in 2026. Shippers could start prioritizing speed and reliability, which means more freight back to trucking and potentially even higher current freight rates per mile.

There are wildcards though. Tariff rulings and trade policy shifts could change the whole calculus. For now, the trucking sector's operating in a tight spot with per-mile rates outperforming recent years. Interesting times ahead.