#国际油价走高

The world woke up on April 3, 2026 to an energy market that no longer resembles anything normal. WTI crude oil settlement price has broken above $110 per barrel for the first time since 2022, surging more than 15 percent in a single session. Spot Brent crude has gone further crossing $140 per barrel, the highest level recorded since 2008. These are not technical moves. These are fear prices. And the fear has a very specific address: the Strait of Hormuz.

To understand what is happening right now, you need to trace this back to February 28, 2026. That was the day the United States and Israel launched military strikes on Iran. Brent crude was trading at $72.87 per barrel that morning. What followed over the next five weeks was one of the most violent and sustained energy price surges in modern history. By March 3 it was $81. By March 6 it was $92. By March 19 it had crossed $114. And now on April 3, after the attack on the Beik Road Bridge in Karaj and Iran's retaliatory military response, spot Brent has reached $141.37, a number not seen since the peak years of the commodity supercycle.

The Strait of Hormuz is at the center of everything. This narrow waterway between Iran and Oman carries approximately 20 percent of the world's daily oil and liquefied natural gas supply. When Iran effectively choked off the strait following the initial US-Israeli strikes, the physical oil market did not just tighten it seized. European refineries that depend on Middle Eastern crude began running down reserves. Loading cycles that typically take days stretched into weeks. Physical traders scrambled. Dated Brent, the benchmark for real-world barrel transactions, hit $141.37 on April 2 according to S&P Global — confirming that the paper market is not alone in its panic. The real oil moving in real ships is now priced at generational highs.

The escalation did not stop at Hormuz. Iranian-backed Houthi forces in Yemen launched their first strikes on Israel in late March, widening the conflict front and adding a second chokepoint risk the Red Sea to an already broken global energy logistics chain. The US attacked Iranian nuclear infrastructure at Isfahan on March 31. Iran struck a fully loaded Kuwaiti oil tanker near Dubai port in retaliation. Trump has publicly stated the desire to seize Iranian oil and potentially take control of Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export hub. Analysts at Macquarie Group have warned that Brent could reach $200 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through the end of June, which would translate to approximately $7 per gallon at the US pump.

The global economy is now absorbing an oil shock of the first order. This is the biggest energy crisis in decades by any objective measure. Oil rose nearly 60 percent in a single month a pace that exceeds the 1973 Arab oil embargo shock in terms of speed. Countries across Europe and Asia have begun implementing emergency energy conservation measures. Vietnam's 10 percent growth target is under direct threat. Global freight costs are surging. Inflation expectations that had been anchored are now becoming unmoored again, and central banks that were positioned for rate cuts are watching their policy room disappear in real time.

For crypto markets, this is an unambiguously difficult environment. High oil prices mean sticky inflation. Sticky inflation means the Federal Reserve cannot cut rates. No rate cuts mean risk assets face sustained headwinds. Bitcoin has pulled back toward the $66,500 to $68,000 range and is struggling to reclaim its daily 50-period simple moving average. Ethereum has dropped more than 4 percent, tracking broader risk-off sentiment. Gold has pushed above $4,500, absorbing safe-haven flows that historically would have been split more evenly across asset classes. Crypto is not gold. In stagflation environments, where growth slows and inflation stays high, speculative assets get repriced lower while real assets and commodities absorb capital.

That said, the longer view matters here. The energy crisis of 2026 is accelerating exactly the arguments that Bitcoin maximalists have made for years sovereign monetary debasement, energy dependency risk, and the fragility of petrodollar infrastructure. If the US-Iran conflict deepens and dollar credibility comes under pressure alongside energy costs, the macro case for hard digital assets becomes structurally stronger even if the near-term price action is painful. The two things can both be true simultaneously: short-term headwinds from risk-off flows, and long-term tailwinds from macro deterioration.

The question the market is asking right now is whether this war has crossed the threshold from containable to generational. Iran has rejected Trump's ceasefire terms and proposed its own conditions including war reparations and recognition of its right to control the Strait of Hormuz. No deal is in sight before the April 6 deadline. Markets reopen Monday. The next 72 hours will be among the most important for global energy prices, inflation trajectories, and crypto positioning since 2022.

This is not background noise anymore. This is the dominant macro variable for every asset class on earth right now. And if you are holding any position oil, equities, crypto, or cash the Strait of Hormuz is the most important price signal you can watch.

Discussion Period: April 3, 2026 at 15:00 April 5, 2026 at 18:00 (UTC+8)

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