Meteoras TGE is approaching, and one question is on the community's mind: What is the fair MET value really? I took a closer look at the valuation metrics and gained some interesting insights.

First, a bit of history: Meteora was created in 2023 from the Jupiter ecosystem after the team decided to rebuild Mercurial Finance from scratch. The reason was straightforward: too many MER tokens were tied up with FTX/Alameda, so they launched with a fresh token. The team kept its promise and reserved 20% of the MET tokens for previous Mercurial holders—15% directly plus 5% for the reserve. Additionally, since January 2024, there has been a DEX reward program distributing another 15%.

At launch, 48% of the MET supply went directly into circulation—that's relatively high compared to other Solana projects. The initial liquidity is provided via a dynamic AMM pool, with a starting price of $0.50, scaling up to a valuation of $7.5 billion.

Now, to the interesting question: How do I fairly value the MET? Meteora has a real advantage over other DEXs—the close integration with Jupiter, the largest aggregator in the Solana ecosystem. That’s not to be underestimated. There are also partnerships with launchpads like Moonshot, Believe, BAGS, and Jup Studio. The volume from these launchpad activities recently ranged between $200,000 and $800,000 per week.

Looking at total revenue: Over the past 30 days, Meteora generated approximately $8.8 million in revenue from all liquidity pools. Interestingly, over 90% of that comes from memecoin pools, which have higher fees. This shows where the actual volume is coming from.

For valuation, I compare with benchmarks—Raydium and Orca. The median Price-to-Sales ratio of these two DEXs in 2025 is around 9x, with Orca consistently trading at 6x and Raydium recently becoming more expensive. Based on annualized revenue data between $75 million and $115 million, the calculation suggests: with a P/S ratio of 6x to 10x, the MET valuation after launch should be between $4.5 billion and $11 billion.

My assessment: Anything over $10 billion already seems ambitious compared to peers. Valuations over $20 billion would only make sense if Meteora significantly improves its profit margins. That’s the realistic framework within which to evaluate the MET value.