Just caught up on TC Energy's 2025 results and there's actually quite a bit worth paying attention to here. Their safety performance hit a five-year high, which apparently drove something pretty impressive - they set 15 flow records across their systems throughout the year. That's the kind of operational execution you don't see every day.

What caught my eye was the financial momentum. Fourth quarter comparable EBITDA jumped 13 percent year-over-year, with segmented earnings up 15 percent. For the full year, comparable EBITDA came in at 11 billion Canadian, up about 9 percent from 2024. Not earth-shattering numbers, but solid and consistent, which actually matters more in infrastructure plays.

The power generation angle is interesting. Deliveries to LNG facilities averaged 3.9 Bcf/d in Q4, up 21 percent compared to the same period last year. They hit an all-time record of nearly 4.4 Bcf on December 4th. Meanwhile, U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines achieved 39.9 Bcf on January 29th - another all-time high. This is clearly benefiting from data centre demand and coal-to-gas conversions happening across North America.

On the capital side, they sanctioned 0.6 billion in expansion projects and are advancing commercial discussions for additional opportunities. Management is confident they can fully allocate 6 billion in net annual capex through 2030, with potential to exceed that later in the decade. They placed 8.3 billion of projects into service in 2025, running over 15 percent under budget, which suggests decent project execution discipline.

Dividend-wise, they approved a 3.2 percent increase - their 26th consecutive year of dividend growth. That kind of consistency is what attracts a certain type of investor.

Looking at 2026, they're expecting comparable EBITDA between 11.6 to 11.8 billion, with capex anticipated at 6.0 to 6.5 billion. They're targeting build multiples in the five to seven times range, which feels reasonable for infrastructure assets.

The broader context here is that North American natural gas demand is expected to grow roughly 45 Bcf/d between 2025 and 2035, driven by LNG exports, power generation, and reliability needs. If that thesis holds, TC Energy's positioned reasonably well to capture some of that growth. Their portfolio is diversified across Canadian and U.S. natural gas pipelines, plus some power assets, which provides decent downside protection.

One thing that stands out is how much of their EBITDA is underpinned by regulated rates or long-term contracts - around 98 percent. That limits commodity exposure and provides visibility to stable cash flows, which is the kind of predictability infrastructure investors typically seek.

The main question for me is whether they can actually execute on those capital deployment targets and whether new project announcements materialize as expected in 2026. The open seasons on Columbia Gas Transmission and Crossroads Pipeline suggest they're actively pursuing growth, but execution will be key. Worth monitoring as the year progresses.