Non-farm payroll data is about to be released. Do not operate aggressively or blindly, or even Jesus can't save you ❌

1. Key Data Expectations
Tonight, the March US non-farm payroll and unemployment rate data will be released: the market generally expects non-farm employment to increase by 60k (compared to -92k in February), with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.4%; some institutions are more pessimistic, with the lowest forecast of only 30k new jobs.

2. Market Special Impact Background
Today coincides with Good Friday, and the US stock market is closed all day. The market reaction to the non-farm data will be delayed until next Monday for full effect, and it will also be affected by tariffs and Middle East geopolitical risks, creating a compounded effect; meanwhile, the crypto market has already experienced a significant decline this week amid fears of "reciprocal tariffs."

3. Three Non-farm Scenarios and Crypto Asset Trend Predictions
The data impact will be transmitted to the crypto market through expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with three specific outcomes:

1. Data meets expectations (+50k to +70k)
Market sentiment remains mildly optimistic, and the crypto market may see a chance to stop falling and rebound.
2. Data significantly weaker (<50k / unemployment rate ≥4.5%)
In the short term, this could trigger fears of a hard landing, creating a bearish signal; in the medium to long term, expectations of rate cuts may be brought forward, causing the market to fall initially and then recover.
3. Data significantly stronger (>125k)
The Federal Reserve will delay rate cuts, which is bearish for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.