Analyst: The Bitcoin derivatives market is dominated by bears, with bulls continuing to face liquidation pressure.

Mars Finance news. On April 3, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted that, “The Bitcoin position index is a composite indicator that measures how aggressive the derivatives market’s long/short positions are, reflecting the current actual opening direction of participants in the futures market. The index’s 30-day simple moving average (SMA-30d) reached a local high of +3.0 on March 17 when the price of Bitcoin was $73,925. Since then, it has continued to fall, and today it has dropped to -3.1. This reflects the ongoing accumulation of short positions. Over the same period, the price of Bitcoin fell from $74,883 to $66,603, and the SMA-30d and market price both declined in tandem, further confirming that the market structure has weakened.

The liquidation oscillation indicator rebounded from 2.9% in mid-March and has continued to rise; as of today it has reached 18.6%. This means the market has been continuously generating forced liquidations on the long side, without allowing the structure to recover. The red bars dominated by short liquidations have not appeared since October 2025. As long as the 30-day moving average (30DMA) remains at a high level, and the clearly negative red bars have not returned, the pressure on long positions will continue to persist. If the 30DMA reverses downward, it will be the first signal that liquidation balance is beginning to recover.

The reversal of the two indicators occurs in sync, mutually reinforcing each other. Bitcoin has cumulatively dropped by about 11% from its peak at $74,883. At present, there is no basis for the derivatives market structure to support a sustained reversal: shorts dominate, longs continue to be liquidated out, and short-squeeze conditions are hardly visible. Current stance on operations: avoid risk. The main downside risks are as follows: if liquidation pressure continues and the held position SMA-30d remains below the zero axis, the bearish setup will become further entrenched, and the downside pressure of Bitcoin breaking below $66,000 will intensify accordingly.”