Analyst: The Bitcoin derivatives market is dominated by bears, with bulls continuing to face liquidation pressure.

Odaily Planet Daily News: CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted that, "The Bitcoin Position Index is an aggregate indicator that measures how aggressively the derivatives market is going long or short, reflecting the current actual position-opening direction of futures market participants. The index’s 30-day simple moving average (SMA-30d) reached a local high of +3.0 on March 17 when the price of Bitcoin was $73,925. Since then, it has continued to decline, and today it has fallen to -3.1. This reflects the ongoing accumulation of short positions. In the same period, Bitcoin’s price dropped from $74,883 to $66,603; the SMA-30d fell in tandem with the market price, further confirming that the market structure has been weakening.

The liquidation oscillation indicator rebounded from 2.9% in mid-March and has continued to rise; as of today, it has reached 18.6%. This means the market continues to generate strong forced liquidations on the long side, preventing any structural recovery. The red bars, reflecting that short liquidations are dominating, have not appeared since October 2025. As long as the 30-day moving average (30DMA) stays at a high level, and the clearly red bars do not return, the pressure on long positions will continue to exist. If the 30DMA reverses downward, that will be the first signal that liquidation balance is beginning to recover.

The reversals of the two indicators occur in sync, confirming each other. Bitcoin’s price has cumulatively fallen by about 11% from its peak of $74,883. There is still no basis in the current derivatives market structure to support a sustained reversal: shorts dominate, longs are continually flushed out, and a short squeeze is virtually nowhere to be seen. Current stance: avoid risk. The main downside risks are: if forced-liquidation pressure continues and the held-position SMA-30d remains below the zero axis, the bearish setup will become further entrenched, and the downside pressure for Bitcoin to break below $66,000 will intensify accordingly."