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Consensus in Divergence: Review of Shida Shenghua, Jiuan Medical, and Tefa Information Investment Research
The market over this period—no need to say more; everyone knows just how difficult it has been. The index drags along awkwardly, and the hot themes change every day; the profit-taking effect is weak to the point of almost being invisible. Many people open their accounts every day and it’s torture—watching the chart with confusion, then shutting it and feeling anxious. [Taoguba]
Actually, the more such a market this is, the more you can understand one thing: the market can be very cold, but your thinking can’t get messy; the environment can be very bad, but your vision can’t be lost. Let me talk with everyone in detail below about the specific targets we’ve been focusing on recently—how we think about what’s behind them—and, along with that, how in this declining market we can find the light that belongs to us.
I. Shida Shenghua: Revaluation of a sub-sector leader amid a turnaround in the lithium battery industry chain’s momentum
On March 24, we focused on Shida Shenghua. The core was that we saw tangible marginal improvements in the lithium battery industry chain. At that time, the price of lithium carbonate kept strengthening, breaking through key levels; it was basically possible to confirm that upstream prices had bottomed out. Profit expectations in segments such as electrolytes and lithium hexafluorophosphate began to recover. On top of that, the supply contraction expectation driven by maintenance by leading companies was layered in, and the price-hike logic fermented in the market step by step.
Shida Shenghua itself is a core leader in the electrolyte solvent field, with a complete supporting setup. It covers leading companies at home and abroad as customers. Meanwhile, it also has exposure to new directions such as silicon-based anodes and solid-state batteries. It has both the logic of a traditional cyclical rebound and the imagination space for growth in new technologies. When expectations in the whole sector were turning around, its distinctiveness was naturally higher, and capital could more easily form a consensus. By the time the sector sentiment moved to a high point and expectations were basically realized, it concluded the phase of tracking, and we steadied the pace and held it.
II. Jiu’an Medical: Opportunity in a high-distinctiveness stock under a combination of event catalysts and earnings expectations
Starting March 25, we focused on Jiu’an Medical. What we looked for was a clear opportunity brought by event-driven dynamics and thematic resonance. On one side, market expectations for AI-related investments kept heating up, and the value of the company’s early layout was gradually recognized by the market—making the logic for valuation reappraisal very smooth. On the other side, its testing-category products are mature in overseas channels, volume growth is stable, and the earnings side has solid support. ps: There was also one special reason at the time—whether the incident of sudden cardiac death due to cardiac causes would lead to wearable heart-beat detection devices. Jiu’an just happened to have such a product.
This stock has active trading characteristics and high market recognition. Under dual catalysts, the capital’s ability to take over the trend has been consistently solid, and its performance in the phase has also been impressive. When the stock price had priced in the expectations fairly fully and sentiment moved into a high position, holding it any longer became less meaningful. So we ended the phase of tracking, and protected the results brought by our research.
III. Tefa Information: Game on a front-line optical communications target amid the price-hike catalyst of AI compute infrastructure
On April 1, we focused on Tefa Information. The driving force was very direct: prices of optical fibers upstream in compute (AI compute) moved upward more than expected, which directly lit up the line of hollow-core optical fiber and optical communications. Compute infrastructure also gained another clear sub-sector catalyst.
Tefa Information has accumulated experience in hollow-core optical fibers and the deployment of related technologies, aligning with the big direction of building compute networks. On top of that, with its state-owned enterprise background, military communications, and cooperation in cloud business, the resonance effect of the theme is very obvious—and it also has actual project cooperation with leading companies, so the logic is strong enough. After the stock strengthened quickly in its phase and clear divergence appeared intraday, ending tracking in a timely way is also an active control of near-term risk.
IV. The harder the market is, the more you need to hold your own rhythm
Honestly, in this stretch of market lately, no one feels good. When declines outnumber gains, and hot themes are here today and gone tomorrow, many friends can’t help but doubt themselves, doubt the market, and even can’t resist impulsive trades—doing more and more, getting more and more chaotic.
But I’ve always believed that in a weak market, it’s never about who has the biggest nerve—it’s about who is clearer-headed and has more patience.
When the market is poor, don’t fire randomly, and don’t chase every hot theme just to ride along. Rather than clinging hard through rough sands, it’s better to concentrate your effort on the few directions with the hardest logic and the highest distinctiveness. Even if the broader market is falling, there are always some industries with price hikes, some events that are landing, and some capital that is quietly concentrating—that’s the light in the dark. When we do research and seize opportunities, at its core we’re looking for certainty in weakness. We don’t bet on whether the broader market goes up or down—we only earn money we can understand.
Everyone will have moments when their mindset collapses—account drawdowns and not being able to sleep at night are all too normal. But never, because things aren’t going well for a moment, throw away your own system; don’t listen to rumors, don’t chase prices higher, and don’t gamble on luck. The more the market declines, the more you must return to logic—use industrial insights to counter emotional panic, and use discipline to keep your own hands in check.
Declines are never the end—they are a filter. Wash out those stocks without logic, without capital, and without support, and only truly high-quality directions will move more steadily afterward. Every round of research we do, every rhythm we hold, and every adjustment of our mindset is building energy for the next cycle of the market.
The market won’t always be this hard, and it won’t always deny opportunities. In tough days, complain a little less and accumulate more; be less impulsive and more resolute. Keep your taste (aesthetic judgment), keep your rhythm—and the light will eventually shine through.
The content above is only an exchange of investment research logic based on publicly available information and does not constitute any investment advice. There are risks in investing; investment requires rationality. If today’s recap and what’s on my mind have given you even a little insight, feel free to like and support. Going forward, I will continue to stay with everyone to dig deeper into logic and hold the rhythm in this choppy market, and together we’ll get through this difficult moment.