Today is Good Friday, the U.S. stock market is closed, which also means—tonight is the true “closing battle” of the week. The next market open will be on Tuesday, because Monday is Easter.

The biggest variable in the market right now is still whether Huangmao will release another black swan again over the weekend. But objectively speaking, the main moves that needed to be made have basically already been done, and over the next three weeks, the main line will most likely revolve around repeated back-and-forth games centered on the situation in Iran.
Today’s market is a bit unusual: crude oil keeps climbing, but U.S. stocks don’t fall; instead, they rebound, and may even end the session up—this divergence, in essence, is capital “re-pricing after short-term risk hedging.”
The evening’s non-farm payroll data will be released. Although its weighting has decreased, it still carries a meaningful impact. Current market expectations are relatively mild: the unemployment rate stays the same, and the employment data merely needs to shift from negative to positive. As for the end-of-month rate decision, a rate hike expectation is not realistic; the market is more in a wait-and-see mode rather than panic.
In terms of geopolitics, tensions continue to heat up, and US oil has already moved above $110. Uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea shipping routes is reshaping global shipping logic. Iran’s strategy of restricting passage for the U.S. and allowing other ships to be released is, in essence, “controllable pressure.” To a certain extent, even Trump’s earlier statements about passage issues are not without logic.
But the problem is—that the situation is no longer controllable.
Back to Bitcoin: this round of decline did not involve panic selling. The turnover rate rose slightly, sentiment remains relatively stable, with the main “exit” coming from short-term funds, while some holdings are consolidating into long-term investors. There is only one real problem: liquidity is drying up.
And war is amplifying all of this. Over the next three days into the weekend, the market will enter a combination state of “low liquidity + high uncertainty.” Hopefully, Trump doesn’t pull any nonsense. #加密市场行情震荡 $BTC $ETH