Date: April 3, 2026

Short-term Impact
1)
· Event: French President Macron explicitly states that "forcibly reopening the Strait of Hormuz by military means is unrealistic," publicly diverging from the US stance.
· Impact: Division within the Western camp → Market expectations for "rapid supply recovery" decline, supporting oil prices and safe-haven assets.
· Focus: Whether the EU will form a unified position and whether diplomatic negotiations will replace military solutions.
2)
· Event: US President emphasizes again the need to "forcefully strike Iran," causing oil prices to break above $109 and triggering a decline in global stock markets.
· Impact: Escalation of war expectations → Rising oil prices + stock market correction, reinforcing the "war inflation trade."
· Focus: Whether actual military escalation (airstrikes/ground operations) will occur rather than just verbal threats.
3)
· Event: Global stock markets fluctuate again due to Middle East conflict, with noticeable intra-day declines and subsequent divergence between US and European markets.
· Impact: Energy shock → Funds shift from growth stocks to energy and defensive sectors; aviation and consumer sectors under pressure.
· Focus: Whether oil prices will remain above $100, determining if market style shifts.
4)
· Event: Strait of Hormuz transit volume drops to about 5% (only 5-7 ships per day), approaching a "frozen state."
· Impact: Significant supply contraction → Upward price elasticity far exceeds downward, with freight and insurance costs soaring.
· Focus: Whether signs of "navigation recovery" or more countries obtaining transit permits will emerge.
5)
· Event: Iran demands up to $2 million in transit fees for oil tankers (settled in RMB or cryptocurrencies).
· Impact: Energy trade rules rewritten → Rise of gray settlement systems, benefiting certain crypto assets and non-USD settlements.
· Focus: Whether more countries will accept this rule and whether sanctions will escalate.
6)
· Event: Over 40 countries hold an emergency meeting to discuss pressure strategies on Iran (excluding the US).
· Impact: Global coordination system "de-Americanization" → Geopolitical landscape reshaped, market uncertainty increases.
· Focus: Whether joint sanctions or escort operations will be formed, and if backed by the United Nations.
Long-term Impact
7)
· Event: The world enters "energy crisis emergency mode," with many countries implementing restrictions, subsidies, and restarting coal power.
· Impact: Reversal of energy structure → Long-term inflation stickiness increases, benefiting both new energy and traditional energy sectors.
· Focus: Whether countries will expand fiscal subsidies and whether energy rationing systems will be introduced.
8)
· Event: The Hormuz crisis causes about 20% of global energy transportation to be disrupted long-term (key chokepoints controlled).
· Impact: Structural reshaping of global supply chains → Central oil prices rise, resource-rich countries and energy companies benefit long-term.
· Focus: Whether scalable alternative routes (Red Sea/land transport) will form.
9)
· Event: Disputes between Europe, the US, and Iran widen, with trust within NATO being impacted.
· Impact: Weakening alliances → Long-term increase in geopolitical risk premiums, making capital markets more unstable.
· Focus: Whether open diplomatic confrontations or policy decoupling (sanctions, military actions) will occur.
10)
· Event: Iran attempts to establish a "shipping agreement" with Oman to manage Strait transit, signaling limited cooperation.
· Impact: If the agreement is implemented → Formation of a "selective navigation new order," with layered pricing for shipping and trade.
· Focus: Whether the agreement will be made public, and if its scope and enforcement mechanisms are transparent.