Just realized we're now at the exact point where Raoul Pal's bitcoin prediction is supposed to hit its stride. The Real Vision CEO called for a crypto bull run extending into Q2 2026, and here we are. What's interesting is that his thesis wasn't just about chart patterns or historical cycles repeating—it was grounded in something much deeper: macroeconomic conditions that most people overlook.

Pal's whole argument hinges on comparing the current market to 2017, but not in the obvious way. He pointed out the resemblance is "spookily similar" when you look at the underlying economic forces, not just price action. The key metric he watches is his business cycle score, which measures global economic health. When that score stays depressed (below 50), recovery takes forever. That means risk-on assets like crypto stay supported for longer than typical cycles would suggest.

There's also the dollar weakness angle. When the USD weakens, it tends to push capital into alternatives—commodities, emerging markets, crypto. It's not complicated: a weaker dollar makes these assets relatively cheaper for international buyers and strengthens the narrative around crypto as a hedge against currency devaluation. Pal sees this as a major tailwind that could sustain the market momentum well beyond what traditional halving cycle models would predict.

What makes this Raoul Pal bitcoin prediction compelling is that it breaks from the usual "peak in late 2024 or early 2025" consensus that dominated discussions. Instead of fixating solely on the halving event, he layered in these macro factors to argue the cycle gets extended. The business cycle moving slowly plus a weakening dollar creates a different timeline altogether.

The practical takeaway? If Pal's framework holds, this isn't about panic-selling into a near-term top. It's about understanding that the macro environment might actually be giving us more runway than we thought. That said, extended doesn't mean smooth—volatility is always part of the game. But the thesis is worth paying attention to, especially since we're literally at the point where his bitcoin prediction was supposed to materialize. Whether it plays out perfectly is another question, but the logic behind it is solid.