10x Research: Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging strategy may have become ineffective; dynamic allocation based on market cycles performs better

Deep Tide TechFlow message, April 03, 10x Research posted on the X platform that as Bitcoin gradually grows into a trillion-dollar asset, its return characteristics have shifted from the early days’ exponential growth to more clearly defined cyclical volatility. The effectiveness of the traditional “DCA (dollar-cost averaging)” strategy is weakening. Over the past five years, although Bitcoin has been highly volatile, its overall incremental returns have been limited. Passive holding has faced multiple drawdowns and long-term returns have not matched expectations, while dynamic allocation strategies based on market cycles have performed better. This difference is mainly because dynamic allocation can help avoid large drawdowns during structural bear markets and re-enter when conditions improve. In the current market environment where consolidation is intensifying, risk management itself is a source of excess returns. A cycle-based allocation framework helps investors protect capital during bear markets and, when win rates improve, participate at the right time.