April 3 Market Overview: Oil prices surge past $111, hitting a four-year high, Tesla delivery fiasco causes stock to plummet

By: Deep Tide TechFlow

US Stocks: A textbook-level “intraday reversal”

On Thursday, Wall Street put on the most nerve-wracking day of 2026.

Before the market opened, everyone was digesting President Trump’s nationwide television address the night before. “Over the next two to three weeks, we’re going to blow them back to the Stone Age.” Those words acted like a depth-charge, completely shattering the optimistic sentiment painstakingly built up over the first three days of this week. The Dow plunged as much as 668 points, the S&P 500’s decline reached as deep as 1.5%, and the Nasdaq was slammed down 2.2%.

The turnaround came in the afternoon. Iranian state media suddenly released news that Tehran was cooperating with Oman to develop a “monitoring” agreement for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. This otherwise unremarkable diplomatic signal was like a shot of adrenaline: shorts instantly stampeded to close positions, and the three major indexes staged a suffocating V-shaped rebound in the final two hours.

Close: The Dow edged down 61 points (-0.13%) to 46,504.67; the S&P 500 barely finished up 0.11% at 6,582.69; the Nasdaq rose 0.18% to 21,879.18. The Russell 2000 climbed 0.70% as Treasury yields continued to fall.

From a nearly 700-point rout to a decline of just 61 points—the Dow covered in six hours the kind of move that takes others six days.

At the sector level, the divergence was severe. Energy stocks surged ahead amid a spike in oil prices: APA rose 4.3%, and ConocoPhillips, Devon Energy, Exxon Mobil, and Chevron all gained about 3%. Real estate and utilities also strengthened as Treasury yields moved lower. But consumer stocks were crushed—war uncertainty and soaring oil prices are delivering a double blow to consumer confidence. Cruise stocks plunged, airlines were under pressure—these are the industries where you “cut a slice” every time oil rises $10.

At the individual-stock level, two extreme stories defined the day:

Tesla flashed down 5.43% to $360.56, posting the biggest single-day drop of 2026. The fuse was first-quarter delivery data—358,000 vehicles—which not only fell short of Wall Street’s expected 365,000, but was even more unsettling: Tesla produced 50,000 units but couldn’t sell them. Production was 408,000, deliveries were 358,000, and the inventory gap exceeded 50,000. This isn’t a capacity problem—it’s a demand problem. Tesla is already down 20% this year, and Musk’s “AI story” is getting harder to cover up the weakness in the auto business.

Globalstar jumped 13% to $75.24, a 18-year high. The Financial Times reported that Amazon is in talks to acquire this satellite communications company, valuing it at roughly $9 billion. Bezos wants to use Globalstar’s spectrum assets and in-orbit satellites to accelerate Amazon’s Leo project and go head-to-head against Musk’s Starlink. The complication is that Apple holds 20% of Globalstar—this three-way chess match is far from settled.

The VIX closed at 23.87, down 2.73%. In a geopolitical storm like this, the fear gauge actually fell, suggesting the market is “desensitizing.” The yield on the 10-year US Treasury slipped slightly to 4.313%.

Worth noting: despite the turmoil on Thursday, US stocks managed to finish higher across the board for the week. The S&P 500 was up 3.4% for the week, the Nasdaq gained 4.4%, and the Dow rose 3%. This is the first weekly increase since the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war.

On Friday, US markets were closed for Good Friday, but the March nonfarm payroll employment report was still released as scheduled in the morning. Wall Street expected 57,000 new jobs, while the prior month was a terrifying -92,000. The data will land in a trading vacuum with no way to trade, and investors will have to endure the results until the market opens on Monday.

Oil: $111, a four-year high

On Thursday, the crude oil market was the real star.

WTI crude skyrocketed 11.41% to close at $111.54 per barrel, hitting the highest level since June 2022. Brent crude rose 7.78% to $109.03 per barrel. During the session, WTI briefly touched $113.

Trump’s line about “blowing them back to the Stone Age” wasn’t just rhetoric—it was a rocket booster for oil prices. Just the day before, WTI was still below $100. In 24 hours it surged by more than $11; the last time this kind of volatility appeared was in the early days of the Russia-Ukraine war.

The core contradiction is very clear: on one hand Trump said “it will be over soon,” and on the other he said “we need to fight for another two or three weeks.” The market only heard the second half. The Strait of Hormuz is still in a semi-blocked state, and nearly 20% of the world’s oil shipments move through this waterway. Iran and Oman’s “monitoring agreement” gave the market a brief moment to breathe, but no one dares to bet on when this lifeline will truly return to full flow.

Analysts’ consensus is shifting toward “higher for longer.” Even if the war ends tomorrow, the pullback in gasoline prices may take weeks or even months—the inflation shock has already been embedded in the economy’s capillaries. OPEC+ will meet on April 5 to discuss whether to ease production cuts. Some member countries argue for increased production to support prices above $100, while others worry about potential postwar oversupply.

One number is worth remembering: in 2026, US crude oil production per day is expected to be 13.6 million barrels, a historical high. The US doesn’t lack oil—it lacks the safety of global transportation corridors.

Gold: Safe-haven halo temporarily fades

Gold put on a counterintuitive show.

On days when oil prices surge and geopolitical risks spike sharply, gold didn’t rise—it fell. The gold price fell from the previous day’s $4,796 per ounce, trading near the close at about $4,690 per ounce, down roughly 2.2%.

The reason isn’t complicated: after safe-haven funds flowed in, the US dollar index strengthened. A stronger dollar suppresses gold priced in dollars. Meanwhile, the surge in oil prices boosted expectations for rate hikes, and higher real interest rates created additional pressure on gold.

But if you extend the timeline, gold is still near the highest ground in history. The all-time high of $5,595 set in January 2026 has already pulled back by nearly $1,000, yet the structural bull-market logic for gold remains: central bank gold buying, geopolitics risk premium, and dedollarization—none of it has disappeared. The World Gold Council expects that in 2026, central banks in emerging markets will buy roughly 850 tons of gold. The People’s Bank of China has increased its holdings for 15 consecutive months.

Gold lost to the dollar in the short term, but in the long-run narrative, it remains the ultimate winner in this geopolitical chess game.

Cryptocurrencies: Drift was looted of $286 million; the fear index sinks to a freeze

On Thursday, the biggest news in the crypto market wasn’t Bitcoin—it was Solana’s biggest perpetual contract DEX, Drift Protocol, being hacked for $286 million.

According to Elliptic analysis, the attack method strongly matches the patterns used in several prior operations by North Korean hacking groups (DPRK). The attacker created the wallet and conducted small test transfers eight days before the incident. Then they used the stolen admin key to obtain “God privileges,” created a fake collateral market, and drained the liquidity pool in one shot. The stolen funds were quickly swapped into USDC via the Jupiter aggregator, and then transferred cross-chain to Ethereum through the CCTP bridge. The entire process lasted for several hours during US trading hours, yet no one intercepted it.

This is the largest DeFi security incident to date in 2026, and the second-largest hack in the Solana ecosystem after 2022’s Wormhole ($326 million). The DRIFT token crashed 25%. Solana (SOL) slid to a five-week low of $78.30.

Back to the tape. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin fell about 2.5% to around $66,835, with a session low of $65,890. Ethereum fell 4.28% to $2,046, and the ETH/BTC ratio dropped to a 15-month low of 0.0308.

Global crypto total market cap shrank to $2.37 trillion, with about 4% wiped out over 24 hours. Bitcoin’s market share rose to 56.1% as capital clustered into Bitcoin amid panic—this is the classic “flight to quality” pattern.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to the 8–12 range (extreme fear), and has stayed below 25 for 46 straight days—an extreme fear cycle lasting the longest since the 2022 FTX collapse.

But historical data offers a cold consolation: since the index launched in 2018, every time it dipped below the extreme fear reading of 15, the median 90-day return for Bitcoin was +38.4%. Of course, history isn’t a guarantee. During the 2022 Terra/LUNA collapse, the 90-day return after extreme fear was only 4%.

A signal worth watching: Japanese listed company Metaplanet bought 5,075 BTC for $405 million on April 2. Its total holdings reached 40,177 BTC, making it the world’s third-largest corporate Bitcoin holder (behind only Strategy and Marathon Digital). When the fear index is at 12, someone is buying the dip.

Today’s wrap-up: A week where oil prices dominated everything

On April 3, the Iran-Iraq war entered its sixth week. Trump refused to provide a clear exit timeline, and crude oil became the pricing anchor for all assets:

US stocks: The Dow was down 61 points (-0.13%) but gained 3% for the week—after war panic, the market found a numb kind of balance.

Oil: WTI surged 11.41% to $111.54 per barrel, a four-year high. The Strait of Hormuz is still the lifeline of the global economy.

Gold: The gold price pulled back to about $4,690 per ounce, and a strong dollar is temporarily suppressing safe-haven demand.

Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin fell to $66,835, and the fear index dropped to a freeze. Drift was hacked for $286 million; confidence in the Solana ecosystem was hit again.

The market now cares about just one question: today’s nonfarm data—does it confirm a recession, or does it give room to breathe?

Wall Street expects 57,000 new jobs in March. If the data far exceeds expectations, the market may see a rebound when trading opens on Monday, because it shows the labor market hasn’t been broken by the war and oil prices. If the data is negative again—after February’s -92,000—then “stagflation” will move from analysts’ papers into traders’ nightmare.

But at least this week, one thing is already very clear: global capital is repricing everything around the $111 oil price. From Tesla’s sales to Drift’s security flaw, from gold’s dollar predicament to Bitcoin’s extreme fear—every story ultimately points back to that narrow waterway in the Strait of Hormuz.