Gold Holds Range as War Tension Lifts Oil, NFP in Focus

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at around $4,646 in early Asian hours and is experiencing slight selling pressure. The development comes after Donald Trump hinted at continued military action against Iran, resulting in a rise in oil prices and causing expectations of rate cuts in the near future to cool down. Geopolitical tension aside, higher yields are capping gold’s upside. Thin trading activity prevails as Good Friday is observed.

Trump said that the “main things” in Iran are “getting close to done” but added that there will be “a lot of action in the next two or three weeks”. This has supported crude prices that in turn bolster the higher-for-longer rate storyline. Gold is a non-yielding asset, and therefore rate hikes diminish its relative attractiveness.

Focus now shifts to the US March NFP data, which is expected to be 60K, and the unemployment rate is seen steady at 4.4%. Weakness in labor data may weigh the USD and boost gold prices, while strength in the report can lead to prolonged selling pressure.

XAU/USDT 1H Analysis — Range Holding, Upside Still Limited

Gold is trading at about 4,648, moving sideways after a sharp bounce from the 4,400–4,420 demand zone. Price has recovered well but now encounters resistance around 4,760–4,800.

Structure is still range bound. Buyers were strong at lows but momentum is slowing down as price gets near supply. However, the breakout is still not clean, even though a higher low is formed indicating short-term strength.

Important levels;

Resistance: 4,760 → 4,800 → 4,980

Support: 4,580 → 4,420 → 4,350

Momentum (MACD): A slight bullish crossover is formulating but remains feeble, providing no strong trend confirmation.

Outlook:

Holding above 4,580 keeps the buyers in charge for 4,760+. Rejection from resistance drags price back to the range again. Break above 4,800 = continuation. Break below 4,580 points bears pressure back into the action.

Simple view; Market is consolidating. Either breakout or proper rejection needs to be seen before taking a position again.

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