After the "face-slapping" in the market: What’s next for cryptocurrencies and crude oil?

April 1-2, the global markets experienced a rollercoaster. First, Trump and the Iranian president sent signals of de-escalation, leading to a collective rebound—Bitcoin briefly surged past $69,000, the Dow skyrocketed 1,100 points, and oil prices plummeted 6%.

However, the situation quickly reversed.

After Iran denied requests for a ceasefire, market sentiment waned, and Bitcoin fell back below $69,000. The real blow to the market came from Trump's speech: within an hour of his remarks, Brent crude oil prices soared from $99.37 to $105.97, a 6.64% increase in just one hour; WTI rose from $97.9 to $104.12, up 6.35%.

Influenced by the speech, key stock indices in the US, Europe, Japan, and South Korea all declined. IEA Director Fatih Birol issued a new warning: the oil supply gap in April will be twice that of March, and many countries may soon face energy rationing. UBS pointed out that the surge in oil prices has introduced new inflation risks, making the Federal Reserve more cautious, and significantly raising the threshold for rate cuts.

The expectation of a ceasefire has been completely dashed—"fighting while negotiating" is replacing "ceasefire expectations" as the new reality.

In the short term, the crypto market will heavily depend on the evolution of geopolitical news—deteriorating situations will pressure the market; if negotiations show signs of progress, the market may rebound. But for at least the next two to three weeks, a true ceasefire is almost impossible to achieve.

Investors should stay alert, manage their positions carefully, and pay attention to developments, rather than blindly believing in "ceasefire expectations."