Attention!!!

Tomorrow is Good Friday, and the US stock market will be closed, so today is the last trading day of the week. The next opening will be on Monday. The biggest hope now is that Trump won't cause trouble over the weekend, but I think he's already done almost everything he can. The next three weeks are likely to focus on the Iran conflict. Today is also quite strange—oil prices keep rising, but the US stock market surprisingly rebounded, and it might even close higher.
Although tomorrow is a holiday, the non-farm payroll data will still be released. While the data isn't as important as before, it still has some market impact. Based on the forecast, the unemployment rate will remain unchanged, and non-farm employment just needs to shift from negative to positive. Anything more would be hard to imagine. Although there's another Federal Reserve meeting at the end of the month, the probability of no change remains the highest. Many investors are worried about a rate hike, but it still seems a bit early.
Recently, the war has intensified, and US oil prices have surged above $110. The Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea might both face restrictions. Previously, Trump said passage was possible, but now it seems the US no longer relies on the Strait of Hormuz—whoever depends on it can handle it themselves. Honestly, that’s not a bad point. Europe is currently holding a meeting to discuss this. Iran is restricting US and Israeli passage, but other ships should be able to pass if they pay. From this perspective, Trump’s declaration of free passage through the Strait of Hormuz might not be wrong.
I think Trump will regret this war and probably curse about it. Things were going well, but now they’re stuck with Iran, and there are a bunch of other issues waiting for him.
Looking at Bitcoin data, the turnover rate has increased a bit, but not significantly. Investor sentiment is relatively relaxed. Although prices have dipped somewhat, there’s no obvious panic. Currently, most of the selling is from short-term investors, while some investors are gradually becoming long-term holders. Unfortunately, liquidity is really poor, and overall market sentiment is being influenced by the war. Investors are still cautious with their funds.
Next, we have a three-day weekend, and liquidity will be even worse. Hopefully, Trump won’t cause any more trouble.