Bitcoin and Altcoin Personal Analysis:

Unfortunately, the one-hour rebound starting from 65,000 over the past couple of days has failed to break through the 70,000 level, reaching only as high as 69,310 before stalling. Since it can't go higher, a decline is likely to resume, with 65,000 becoming a key support level again. If 65,000 is broken again, be cautious, as the market may start a unilateral downward trend breaking below 60,000.

In the short term, the market is heavily influenced by the Middle East icon conflict, showing a clear negative correlation with international crude oil prices. If the conflict escalates and bombings continue, crude oil prices rise and Bitcoin falls. If the situation eases and negotiations are underway, crude oil prices fall and Bitcoin rises. Of course, these are short-term phenomena, but in the later stages of the war, Bitcoin generally begins a downward trend. Only after the war ends will Bitcoin see a sharp rally. We mentioned this back in early March.

Medium- and Short-term Trend Directions:
Four-hour main trend: Currently in a downtrend on the four-hour chart. Only if there is a secondary buy without breaking 65,000 or a price breakthrough above 70,000 can we consider a short-term four-hour rebound.
One-hour trend: In the short term, a one-hour decline is underway. Focus on the strength of this decline.

BTC Short-term:
Due to rapid market changes, this analysis can only provide a snapshot of the market at the time of publication. Short-term traders should pay attention to the latest market movements; this is for reference only.
One-hour level:
1) Bitcoin has been consolidating in the 67,300–69,300 range over the past week, forming a one-hour central zone. Currently, the expectation is for a one-hour decline leaving this zone.
2) Keep an eye on the strength of this one-hour decline to see if it continues to break below 65,000.
3) If Bitcoin drops below 65,000 again, the probability of a unilateral decline breaking below 60,000 becomes very high. However, a high probability does not mean it will definitely break 60,000 immediately; it’s a matter of probability. Confirmation of a break below 60,000 would be a drop below 62,500, and breaking that level would likely signal a continuation to new lows.
4) If the one-hour decline refuses to break below 65,000, it could indicate a potential four-hour rebound, a secondary buy. Similar to the decline to 63,000 on February 28, which was only 500 dollars above the previous low of 62,500 and couldn’t go lower.
5) Currently, the strength of the one-hour decline is critical; it will influence the subsequent medium-term four-hour structure and determine the trend more clearly.

Fifteen-minute level:
1) Last night, the article mentioned that breaking below 67,800 would confirm a short-term move into a new one-hour decline. This morning, it has already broken below that level, so a one-hour decline is underway.
2) At the 15-minute level, the current expectation is that the third 15-minute decline is in progress. This decline is not yet showing divergence, so it’s too early to confirm that the third decline has ended.
3) There will likely be a fourth 15-minute rebound and a fifth 15-minute decline. The key point is whether it will break below 65,000; breaking that level would significantly increase the probability of further short-term downside.

Ethereum:
1) Although ETH broke below 2,155, the rebound in Bitcoin was weak. Currently, ETH is also in a one-hour decline.
2) This one-hour decline is only the first leg of a 15-minute decline; there will be a second 15-minute rebound and a third 15-minute decline to follow.
3) If this one-hour decline continues downward and breaks below 1,938, the probability of further breakdowns, even below 1,747, will greatly increase.
4) Focus first on the strength of the one-hour decline, then consider the subsequent trend.