I have been closely following what’s happening with the Saudi PIF right now, and honestly, it’s an interesting turning point for understanding how the kingdom’s mega-projects actually operate.

The Public Investment Fund is currently testing a completely revised strategy for 2026-2030, and the signals it’s sending this week through its Private Sector Forum are revealing. After years of massive spending that hit execution obstacles and skyrocketing costs, Saudi Arabia has to make tough choices. Falling oil prices—Brent at $64 per barrel compared to an average of $81 in 2024—seriously tighten the budgetary space.

What struck me: the sovereign wealth fund, with about $1 trillion, is planning to cut investment spending by up to 15%. Some projects saw their budgets slashed by 60% during board meetings at the end of 2024. This is serious. Neom and the Mukaab—this iconic cube meant to be the heart of New Murabba in Riyadh—have had their work suspended. Saudi Arabia’s projects are no longer evaluated based on ambition but on strict financial indicators and internal rates of return.

But here’s the twist: Expo 2030 and the 2034 World Cup are becoming absolute priorities. No major contracts will be awarded this year without a link to these events. Infrastructure related to transportation, mobility, energy, and entertainment tied to these two events is monopolizing attention.

The real problem? The kingdom is desperately trying to attract private and foreign investors to fill the gap. The target was $100 billion annually by 2030, but net inflows only reached $19 billion in the first nine months of 2025. According to Fitch, only $115 billion worth of contracts have been awarded since 2019, with the PIF financing about half of that—becoming the last-resort financier.

What’s really at stake is strategic rationalization. The least profitable or overly costly Saudi projects will be delayed, scaled back, or outright canceled. The government is also pushing local banks to increase their financing of mega-projects, which could strain their capital. And the PIF is exploring share sales in its portfolios to raise funds.

The full strategy will only be unveiled in April, but this ongoing test shows a clear direction: less ambition, more efficiency, focus on profitability. It’s a major adjustment for a fund that long operated under the logic “oil resources are infinite.” Now, every riyal counts.